THE world’s youngest nation is on the verge of becoming a failed state. July 9 was supposed to be its fifth anniversary of independence, a celebration worth remembering, but it turned out to be the bloodiest day in the history of South Sudan.
While opposing leaders discussed how to end their conflict and proposed a long lasting political settlement at the Presidential Palace in the capital city, Juba, their followers were engaged in a bitter street fighting which resulted in more than 300 deaths within a span of two days.
The incident indicated the leaders lack control over their respective forces and even if they reached an agreement to end hostilities, implementing it on the ground seems unlikely.
After independence, ethnic rivalry between the country’s two largest ethnic groups, the Dinka and the Nuer tribes, morphed into an all-out civil war that has engulfed the country.
Thousands of people were brutally killed and hundreds of thousands displaced.
At times the conflict ebbs thanks to the intervention of international forces under the UN and Organisation of African Union (OAU), but can be sparked off again by a minor altercation.
In the absence of strong international forces in South Sudan, the probability of a genocide like the one in Rwanda in 1994 – which claimed the lives of more than one million civilians – looms large.
A series of meetings brokered by the international community has taken place in the past, but with no progress. The latest attempt to form a unity government in the capital was marred by street fighting.
Now the international community has given up the hope of reconciliation and the prospect of a power-sharing government holds little hope for success.
The focus now is diverted to imposing an arms embargo on the warring factions and economic sanctions on their leaders.
However, analysts have warned such soft measures will have no effect in curbing the conflict. Arms suppliers from Russia, China and Israel are expected to act.
The Russians have already agreed to the arms embargo and others must follow suit.
However, in a continent awash with smuggled weapons that are available in the black market, an arms embargo is unlikely to have the desired impact.
These two ethnic groups were fighting for decades with hatchets and machetes.
Another worrying trend is the emergence of camps for displaced people around the country.
Each camp, exclusively accommodating one ethnic group, is protected by weak UN forces and they regularly come under attack by armed groups. The fear is that if one of the warring factions overruns an opposing camp, an unprecedented massacre would take place – right under the watchful eye of UN peacekeeping forces.
Amid the escalating situation, Western governments are desperately rushing to evacuate their citizens and embassy staff from Juba.
South Sudanese citizens are flocking to the nearby border with Uganda, where they are met by government forces who ask for bribes in exchange for letting them cross.
There are reports that some who are unable to pay face abuse.
The UN has appealed to warring factions to abide by international laws, but this seems to have fallen on deaf ears.
Anarchy, mass murder, rape and looting have become a daily scenario.
In the absence of a functioning government, the world’s youngest nation is likely to become a failed state even before it starts to establish itself as an independent country. No doubt this will be to the chagrin of those nations, including the US, that midwifed its independence.