BEIJING: China’s export growth unexpectedly picked up speed in July, offering an encouraging boost to the economy as its struggles to recover from a Covid-induced slump, but weakening global demand could start to drag on shipments in coming months.
Exports rose 18 per cent in July from a year earlier, the fastest pace this year, official customs data showed yesterday, compared with a 17.9pc increase in June and beating analysts’ expectations for a 15pc gain.
Outbound shipments have been one of the few bright spots for the Chinese economy in 2022, as widespread lockdowns hit businesses and consumers hard and the once mighty property market lurches from crisis to crisis.
“China’s export growth surprised again on the upside. (It) continues to help China’s economy in a difficult year as domestic demand remains sluggish,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
However, many analysts have expected exports to fade as the global economy looks increasingly likely to be heading into a serious slowdown, weighed down by soaring prices and rising interest rates.
A global factory survey released last week showed demand weakened in July, with orders and output indexes falling to their weakest levels since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020.
China’s official manufacturing survey indicated activity contracted last month, raising fears that the economy’s recovery from lockdowns in spring will be slower and bumpier than expected.
But there were signs that transport and supply chain disruptions caused by Covid restrictions were continuing to ease, just in time for shippers preparing for peak year-end shopping demand.
Foreign trade container throughput at eight major Chinese ports rose 14.5pc in July, speeding up from the 8.4pc gain in June, according to data released by the domestic port association.
Container throughput at Covid-hit Shanghai port hit a record high last month.
July exports may also have been buoyed by pent-up demand from Southeast Asia as supply snarls eased and factories there ramped up production, Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research at Jones Lang Lasalle, said in a research note.
Moreover, amid negative real interest rate and surging inflation, some European and US customers may have frontloaded orders to ensure they had goods on hand with lower costs, he added.
Still, while export growth remained high, mainly backed by price factors, the volume of exported goods dropped in July, said Chang Ran, a senior analyst at Zhixin Investment Research Institute.
“Looking ahead in the second half of the year, exports are expected to be resilient in the short run, but weakening external demand may pressure them in the fourth quarter,” Chang said.
Chinese exporters are facing mounting headwinds, one company executive said.
“I am very worried about the impacts of soaring US inflation and rising China-US tensions on our export orders,” Jin Chaofeng, general manager at Nicesoul, one of Amazon’s top rattan outdoor furniture sellers, said.
Jin said the exports value of his company jumped 70-80pc in July year-on-year.
After a shaky second quarter, most analysts had expected China’s import momentum to pick up modestly in the latter half of the year, supported by construction-related equipment and commodities as the government ramps up infrastructure spending.
But imports last month were again weaker than expected, suggesting domestic demand remains soft.
Imports rose 2.3pc from a year earlier, compared with June’s 1pc gain and missing a forecast for a 3.7pc rise.
Crude oil imports in July fell 9.5pc from a year earlier as fuel demand recovered more slowly than expected due to fresh virus outbreaks.
The volume of imported integrated circuits – a major Chinese import – dropped 19.6pc in July from a year earlier.
That may be an additional red flag for exports, as a significant amount of the country’s imports are components for goods that are then re-exported.
China posted a record $101.26 billion trade surplus last month, well above the $90bn surplus analysts had expected.
The country’s top economic planner said last week that the economy is in the “critical window” of stabilisation and recovery, and the third quarter is “vital.”