WITH the election of Donald Trump as the next US President, several changes are expected to take place in both domestic affairs and foreign policy of the country. For the Middle East which witnessed US ambiguity, shifting alliances and unpredictable outcomes, a question that begs an answer is how do these apparently ‘new foreign policies’ affect this region’s volatile situation?
Trump inherits a failed US Middle East policy. Most of his foreign policy changes are expected to concentrate on three main hot issues that seem to shape the future Middle East politics – the Iranian nuclear deal, Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Syria-Iraq conflicts where the US military is heavily engaged in fighting terrorists.
Trump gave a series of interviews to leading mainstream media outlets following his election and what one can understand is that the Middle East’s situation is likely be more chaotic than the current Barack Obama’s administration.
His rhetoric is full of contradictory statements at times damaging the centuries-old relations with its Middle East allies, and supporting the enemies at other times. These controversial views throw the region into an uncertain future.
Trump seems to have less appetite for triggering another military adventure in the Middle East, but the unfinished business initiated by Obama administration including the prolonged conflicts in Syria and Iraq will continue to affect his administration.
Trump’s destructive policies were evident from the first day he started campaigning for presidency. His anti-Muslim speeches, proposing to ban Muslims from entering the US and to possibly set up a registry are pieces of evidence that show a shift from previous administration’s Middle East policies.
Trump has hinted at normalising ties with Russia. That would mean supporting Russia’s Syrian campaign. This doesn’t appear to go well with the Arab members of the US-led coalition, which opposes Russia’s involvement in Syria. He also hinted at stopping the supply of weapons to the Western-backed Syrian rebels. Doing so will affect the moderate rebels’ military capability but empowers the Assad regime and encourages him to continue massacring his people and destroying the country.
Obama was in favour of Assad’s removal and in fact his mantra was ‘Assad must go’ and unfortunately he is going before Assad does. Trump’s policy is to keep Assad in power and then find a political solution, which contradicts with Syrian people’s interest. Thus the Syrian people will be the first victims of Trump’s new policy.
Obama paid a heavy sacrifice to bring Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief, which opened an opportunity to engage the Iranian regime in international affairs.
Trump described the Iranian nuclear agreement as “the worst deal ever negotiated” and consequently, he is expected to overhaul or even reject the previous controversial agreements. This move will backfire and the Iranians will continue to destabilise the region.
His support for Israel, ignoring the Palestinian cause and recognising Jerusalem as its capital and encouraging them to build more Jewish settlements in the West Bank will undoubtedly trigger anger in the Arab world. This situation aggravates the Israel-Palestine decades-old animosity. Peaceful political settlement through a ‘two states’ solution will likely remain a remote possibility.
During his interviews he stressed more on the security Israel desperately needs and the support his administration will provide rather than stressing on negotiated settlements with the Palestinians. Thus like their Syrian brothers, the Palestinians will also be victims of Trump’s policy.
Trump’s Middle East policy is expected to be more chaotic than Obama’s. Successive US administrations have failed to stabilise the region and Trump’s presidency is expected to be no different. Consequently, the Middle East will likely remain an unstable region for foreseeable future.