The Syrian army and allies are closing in on the country’s second city. It’s only a matter of time before it falls under the control of the brutal regime.
However, the military victory doesn’t seem to appear a success for Assad, who would rule over an economic wasteland, hampered by low-level insurgency, say analysts. Aleppo’s capture materialises Iran’s hegemonic dreams and fulfils Russia’s national interests.
Following the victory, Assad will most likely face an endless insurgency, where he is expected to deploy, Iran-backed Shi’ite militias which are reviled by the majority Sunni population. Due to its military power, Iran will dominate and solidify its presence in the country – another Iraq in the making?
Above all, the military plan in Syria was prepared by Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG) and Hizbollah a long time ago. In the mid-2012, the Syrian army witnessed wide-spread defections and deaths. The first step the IRG took was to recruit mercenaries from as far away as Afghanistan and Pakistan to fill the Syrian army’s vacancies.
The main source of recruitment was the squalid refugee camps in Iran where thousands of Afghan and Pakistani refugees were living. It offered them Iranian citizenship, permanent residency permits to their families and salaries in exchange for serving in the army. The offer was more than an ordinary refugee can expect, particularly those who used to live on next to nothing. As a result hundreds of thousand desperate youths responded to the recruitment campaign. Shi’ite youths from countries ranging from Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen have also joined the Assad army.
After the recruitment was accomplished, the next step was to plan the military operation: Besieging cities, cutting off supply lines and bombing civilian targets.
This is the pattern of military engagement taking place in Syria and during all these operations Bashar Al Assad was confined to dropping barrel bombs on civilian targets. Indirectly, he has handed over the affairs of the country to Iran, Hizbollah operatives and Russia.
Lately however, the urge to capture Aleppo has speeded up partly due to Russia’s own concern. “The Russians want to complete the operation before Trump takes power,” a senior Syrian official told Reuters. Pro-Damascus sources said the timetable was drawn up to mitigate the risks of any shift in US policy towards the war in Syria.’ (The Daily Telegraph, Nov 30, 2016). Thus, the indiscriminate and nonstop bombing of Aleppo is in fact a race against time.
Joseph Bahout, a scholar from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that ‘Moscow is seeking a “new fait accompli that would strengthen its position on the negotiating table’ with the new US administration.’
Obama administration has failed in its Syrian policy. Assad’s ‘red lines’ have been crossed multiple times, and the use of cluster munitions, banned chemicals and barrel bombs, has killed thousands of civilians while the US has done nothing other than mere rhetoric.
The new US president-elect is expected to be against Iran and its allies. His administration’s ‘new team’ is expected to turn the heat up on Iran; some of the key posts are filled with ex-military generals who oppose Iran’s activities in the region and beyond.
For now, the US policy on Syria and the wider Middle East is uncertain and in the meantime, Russia and Iran are consolidating their positions and strategic interests.
The capture of Aleppo doesn’t mean the end of Syrian civil war. Rather it indicates the beginning of a new era of insurgency and increased Iranian interference, if not dominance, in Syria’s state affairs. Only a political solution in which the majority Sunnis is included in the government can a long-term solution be found. Unfortunately, this ingredient is currently non-existent in the regime’s recipe.