The tumult that has rocked the Arab world has contributed to dramatic changes in the Arab public’s attitudes towards important global and regional powers. This is one of the findings of a recent Zogby Research Services (ZRS) poll of more than 7,000 adults in six Arab countries (Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq), Turkey and Iran.
The wide-ranging study, prepared for the annual Sir Bani Yas Forum, covered a number of topics asking respondents to identify: Obstacles to stability and sources of the conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen; the causes of extremism; and how best to deal with the threat of extremism. While all warrant examination, the shake-up in the region’s positive and negative perceptions of the roles played by global and local powers is both fascinating and consequential.
In face-to-face interviews, ZRS found that Saudi Arabia is in an exceptionally strong position, while favourable attitudes towards Iran and Turkey continue to decline. These ratings and the mixed reviews given to the US and Russia define the turnabout that has occurred in recent years.
In 2006, the attention of most Arabs was focused on the continuing US war in Iraq and the US support for Israel’s destructive assault on Lebanon and its occupation policies in the West Bank and Gaza. In that context, attitudes towards the US were at their lowest point. With then Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad leading a war of words not only against the US and Israel, but also the weak Arab response to both, favourable attitudes towards Iran were on the rise region-wide reaching more than 70 per cent in most Arab countries – including 85pc in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
In 2009, Turkey’s then Prime Minister Erdogan created a sensation with his televised public rebuke of Israeli President Shimon Peres. This behaviour brought about a rise in the Arab world’s favourable assessment of Erdogan and Turkey. After the Turks broke relations with Israel and continued to publicly challenge its policies, their favourable ratings rose even higher.
Much has changed in the past decade. Iran’s meddlesome regional role has angered many Arabs causing a steep and steady decline in its ratings. The “nail in the coffin” of Iran’s regional standing has been its support for the Syrian regime of Bashar Al Assad. Just how precipitous this decline has been can be seen by looking at the changes that have occurred in Egypt and Saudi Arabia – dropping from almost nine in 10 who had a favourable rating of Iran in 2006 to less than one in 10 in 2016.
The Arabs’ assessment of Turkey has also taken a hit largely owing to that country’s bungling efforts to claim a regional leadership role and its troubling drift towards authoritarianism. Saudi Arabia continues to receive the highest favourable ratings in all Arab countries and Turkey. Majorities in all the Arab countries also see the kingdom contributing to peace and stability and view having good relations with Saudi Arabia as important – with a majority of Iranians also favouring good relations with the kingdom.
The US and Russia fare quite poorly. They each receive a net positive rating in only one country – the US in Lebanon and Russia in Iran. Neither the US nor Russia are seen as promoting peace and stability, and both receive mixed reviews in response to the question about the importance of having good relations with them.
It is interesting to note the countries where attitudes towards the US actually improved (Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan). The cause of both appears to be the administration’s lighter regional footprint. Despite frequently heard complaints about the lack of US leadership, this concern is barely mentioned when respondents were asked about the sources of conflict and instability in hot spots, like Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen. That’s the positive takeaway for US policymakers.
On the negative side, it is very clear that Arab attitudes towards the US are still deeply affected by the long, bloody, and largely failed war in Iraq and the lack of trust in the US as an “honest broker”. As a result, far from wanting more US leadership and involvement in regional conflicts, respondents in all eight countries see the US role, more often than not, as a source of problems to be avoided.