From Disney animated confections to NBC live musical events, Peter Pan has inspired several big and small screen productions over the years. Some have been magical, others misbegotten. The latest trip to Neverland seems destined to fall into the latter category. 'Pan,' an $150 million origin story about the boy who refused to grow up, is shaping up to be a painful flop. It is on track to follow the second star to the right and head straight on to a woeful $21 million this Columbus Day weekend across 3,515 locations. That means Warner Bros., the studio that greenlit the film with ambitions of turning it into a fantasy franchise, should brace itself for steep writedowns. In order for the studio to make a profit, a film like 'Pan' will need to do at least $350 million to $400 million globally. A domestic debut on this level makes that figure unlikely.
'Pan' stars Hugh Jackman, Rooney Mara and Garrett Hedlund and was directed by Joe Wright of 'Atonement' fame. Reviews have been savage, with critics handing the film a scrawny 38% “rotten” ranking on Rotten Tomatoes.
The studio is hoping that word-of-mouth will be more positive, but 'Pan' faces stiff competition from 'Hotel Transylvania 2,' which continues to draw family crowds, and next week’s 'Goosebumps,' a loose adaptation of the R.L. Stine children’s books that has enjoyed strong reviews.
“It’s not an easy place to be,” said Phil Contrino, vice president and chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “After a drought of family movies, now there’s a rush of them. Someone is going to lose out.”
The film could do better overseas. It opens this weekend in 52 territories, representing about 60% of the foreign market. It includes such major countries as Germany, Russia, Korea, Mexico and Spain. “Pan” has also scored a coveted berth in China, where it launches on Oct. 22.