There are many theories about how the great civilisation of ancient Egypt came to an end. Some theories talk about invasions by neighbouring powers; some theories highlight crises of political succession leading to war and instability; some theorists simply suggest that all civilisations eventually grow old, weak, corrupt and victims of their own success.
However, an interesting new theory suggests that climate change in late ancient Egypt led to droughts, food shortages, crop failures and social disruption, which resulted in rioting and political chaos; eventually causing this almost miraculous ancient civilisation to simply implode.
In other words: An environmental crisis caused a profound economic crisis, which led to political crises and the ultimate downfall of ancient Egypt.
Thus, events which took place thousands of years ago actually have a very modern-sounding resonance: Climate change is one of the great issues of our time. While many vested interests seek to deny the very existence of these changes; some of the most vulnerable societies are already experiencing profound transformations which are destroying livelihoods at a terrifying rate, through desertification, rising sea levels, flooding and immense storms which just in recent weeks have made several Caribbean islands virtually uninhabitable.
Furthermore, we are only too aware of how economic crises can directly lead to political instability as large segments of various societies experience chronic unemployment, grinding poverty, and the death of loved-ones due to entirely preventable diseases. When societies which once expected social progress and improving living standards begin to see their lives getting more difficult year after year, many around the world are quick to turn against the political classes. The resulting social unrest can cause a downward spiral as instability damages the economy and makes social hardship more acute.
We saw this in modern Egypt, where the 2011 revolution didn’t lead to heaven on earth – as many protesters were expecting once the corrupt old regime was erased and the nation’s wealth could be shared fairly. Instead, a perfect storm of factors sent the economy into a tailspin: Investors withdrew their funds because of fears of continued instability; the tourist industry collapsed for similar reasons, and continuing protests meant that the leaders were fighting for their survival rather than steering the economic ship forward.
Furthermore, a wave of Islamist radicalism further spooked the economy and foreign stakeholders and led to heightened instability across the country
According to this new hypothesis, volcanic eruptions which disrupted the monsoon rains in East Africa were just one factor which halted the summer flooding of the Nile which Egyptian farmers for millennia have relied on to water their crops and fertilise the soil. It is only too obvious how rapidly such changes would have reduced the dense population of the Nile Basin to desperation and the brink of starvation – and it is unsurprising that there were profound consequences for the civilisation as a whole.
After around two and a half millennia of being one of the most fruitful civilisations known to history, Egypt was eventually conquered by the Persians in 525 BC (perhaps another echo from history which should concern us!!) There was a period of relative independence under the Ptolemy dynasty, but a weakened Egypt became a province of the Roman Empire, losing any pretentions of independence after Cleopatra took her own life in 30BC. The question which historians struggle to answer was how this mighty nation increasingly became a backwater controlled by new powers. The researchers cite detailed reports from this Ptolemaic period citing how crop failures and economic hardship led to the downfall of this once-proud nation.
It is easy to forget how vulnerable our region is to tiny fluctuations in climate. The GCC climate is even more extreme. I fear for this region in 100-200 years’ time in a post-oil age when we will neither have the wealth to protect ourselves from the murderous heat, nor the wealth to turn our deserts into artificially-irrigated gardens.
Trump walking away from the Paris Agreement is a lesson on how global environmental achievements can be reversed. In the GCC we saw massive levels of investment in renewable energy and measures to reduce energy wastage and pollution.
This lesson from ancient Egyptian history about how climatic change can create failed states is a deeply chilling vision. Being able to see echoes of such events in nearby nations, and seeing how much of the Arab and Islamic world is intensely vulnerable to climate change means it doesn’t take much imagination to conceive of how such a state of affairs could play out.
In the Arab world with its chronic political crises, climate change may seem like the least of our problems. However, precisely because of this region’s vulnerability we should all be doing our utmost to prevent the worst consequences of climate change.