The onward march of populism and political change continues to impact democracies across the world. This month we witnessed a move to the right in Brazil, electing Jair Bolsonaro with voters ignoring his distaste for gay people, feminism, rainforests and the rule of law to rid themselves of a corrupt leftwing regime unable to contain street violence. A famously tolerant nation has opted for military and economic discipline rather than the failed promises of the left-leaning politicians.
There is a key lesson to take from this election for champions of open democracy. Today, democracy and its values cannot be taken for granted.
When debate is no longer through regulated media, courts and institutions, politics will end up in the hands of Luddite mobs. The fuel to this fire of change is social media which was once hailed as an agent of global harmony. In this case it became the purveyor of falsity, anger and hatred resulting in arguments being driven to extremes.
Thousands of miles away in Europe even an apparently stable democracy such as Germany finds its centrist consensus torn apart, as the electorate divides between far right and radical left. The voters have abandoned Angela Merkel, who has led her party for 18 years and her country for 13. She intends to continue as Germany’s chancellor until the next federal elections, expected in 2021. Merkel also announced she will relinquish her position as the leader of the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) in December and won’t run for further political office.
This loss of arguably one of the finest leaders in Europe today whose cautious blend of principle and pragmatism guided her country and the EU through many crises. During her watch she steered Europe through the 2008 financial crash and ensuing eurozone crisis, the Arab Spring, Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and Europe’s migration crisis.
Her downfall started back in 2015 when she took the bold decision to open Germany’s borders to about a million refugees, mostly Muslims fleeing wars and poverty in the Middle East. While applauded for her humanity, many viewed her bold decision as having accelerated her downfall, diminishing her authority, dividing her party, her country and its European partners, and boosting support for anti-immigrant parties. There is no doubt her decision to provide a haven for refugees, which was also supported by Stefan Lofven, the Swedish Prime Minister, led to both being punished by the electorate. Lofven continues to run Sweden with a caretaker government after an election in early October but the lack of progress in coalition talks makes another snap election likely.
Populism and the consequences in democracies across the world are driven by new technologies and especially by social media. Never in human history has there been such a communication tool and presently close to three billion people use social media. As a result, there is limited control over the authenticity of what is being said as we move away from mainstream news organisations who are regulated and controlled.
Today, we have 19 full democracies in the world and increasingly they are affected by populism.
We are only at the start of a journey into a democratic black hole.