After the G20 conference in Argentina I am left with the impression that the Europeans and North Americas lack a robust strategy, unlike China. In September 2013, the Belt and Road initiative was unveiled by President Xi Jinping. This is a strategy involving infrastructure development and investments in countries in Europe, Asia and Africa. This economic strategy is supported by other strategies such as cultural and military. In this piece I’ll focus on the strategic activity in the South China Sea.
China has used what has become known as The Nine-Dash Line regarding claims of the major part of the South China Sea. The contested area includes the Paracel Islands, the Spratly Islands, and various other areas including the Scarborough Shoal.
The claim encompasses the area of Chinese land recently reclaimed from the sea known as the “great wall of sand.” In full public view the Chinese have been ramping up their physical presence for over 20 years while a string of US presidents and other world leaders have turned a blind eye.
Examples of what has been happening have been widely reported for many years.
The Chinese began ramming and harassing US Navy Survey ships during the Clinton presidency and all the US did was lodge protests. Under George W Bush they began buzzing aircraft carriers and other ships, and they commenced with dangerous intercepts and harassment of US reconnaissance flights. Eventually, this activity resulted in one of their fighter pilots having a mid-air collision with a US Navy maritime surveillance aircraft. The Chinese captured the plane and crew when they crash landed.
The Bush administration did nothing in response and the president delegated to Donald Rumsfeld, his Secretary of Defence, to deal with the US response.
Eventually, the Chinese agreed to release the crew after repeated pleas from the Americans along with the plane packed up in boxes.
We are bombarded with anti-Trump, anti-America First narrative in the media today. What we do not hear is the change Trump has brought to the US/Chinese relationship. A previous non-confrontational approach has been replaced by America adopting a position of strength under Trump.
Donald Trump inherited a US foreign policy that had been weakened by Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama who all ignored rising aggression by China and Russia.
Putin figured out how to exploit Obama early on by holding out carrots like an Iran deal and an arms control deal. The Chinese figured out Obama was weak on trade and debt, and that he was allergic to military force. So, while Obama was at the helm, the Chinese accelerated their attempted takeover of the South China Sea and the Chinese expanded their naval reach with an expanded fleet.
Where we will eventually end up is uncertain but one thing for sure – the current US President is not only rocking the boat, but he is rocking it hard.
Having failed to act in the past has sent a message to the leadership in Russia and China that the West, including NATO, are pussycats who will not bite back.
This has now changed.