Since the US withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, Iran’s influence has managed to permeate every aspect of Iraqi society. Iran has invested tremendous resources to penetrate Iraq and wrest control of as much of the country’s institutions as possible. What began as a policy of arming and funding Shi’ite militias in the country has morphed into a complex effort to turn Iraq into a proxy state of the Islamic Republic.
Today’s Iraq answers to the calls of the Ayatollahs in every sphere, from the political, to the social – even cultural and religious affairs are swayed by orders from Tehran.
Tehran’s success in Iraq has culminated in the promotion of pro-Iranian policymakers who have held political power in Iraqi institutions for years. Thus, Iranian officials have largely achieved free rein across key institutions of the Iraqi state including its security apparatus. Iranian agents and officers are central to much of the Iraqi government’s decision-making.
Iran has much to gain from maintaining control over Iraq. A shared border and religious kinship shared with Iraq’s Shia majority offer Iran a strategic depth in the region in the form of the so-called “Shia Crescent” through Mesopotamia, a geographical area which includes the north of modern day Iraq, Syria, and into Lebanon to the Mediterranean Sea. Much of the population within this region identifies as Shia. This grand strategy has been recognised by regional leaders for more than 15 years and the ensuing chaos in Iraq since the coalition invasion of 2003 made this plan a possibility for the Ayatollahs.
Iraq also offers Iran an economic resource. Following the massive hits to the Iranian economy from US sanctions, Iran has attempted to circumvent the embargoes that have been so strictly enforced by Washington. Now with Iraqi crude in uniquely high demand (especially by refineries in Asia), Iran, by infiltrating Iraqi authorities, is in a position to profit from Iraq’s oil boom by syphoning off profits from Iraqi oil, and by passing off sanctioned Iranian oil as non-sanctioned Iraqi oil.
However, Iran’s plans are no longer a secret. Iranian officials openly speak of their desire to turn their western neighbour into a puppet state. In 2014, lawmaker Ali Reza Zakani famously said Iran controlled four Arab capitals – Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus, and Sanaa.
As part of its regional expansion, Iran systematically keeps Iraq in a state of institutional weakness. The frailty of the Iraqi state is manifested in several areas, all of which impact the Iraqi people.
Iran exploits age-old factional tensions in Iraq and has perpetuated conflict by fanning the flames of religious sectarian divides. Back in 2011, the Iranian backed Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki – himself a Shia Islamist – systematically removed Sunni officials from Iraq’s political scene.
At the social level, Iran’s interference and the creation of poor living conditions as well as rampant government corruption, have sparked one of the largest waves of protests in Iraq’s history.
As long as the country remains a battleground for warring regional factions, Iraq will remain a dysfunctional state mired by corruption and plagued by foreign influence.
The good news is that this transformation has already been demonstrated in the region. The Turkish government’s military action in Syria, while aimed at several strategic objectives for Ankara, was able to achieve a semblance of order in the north eastern parts of the country unseen since the breakout of the country’s civil war.
While Iraq cannot afford yet another foreign power occupying its territory, a lesson can be learned from Northern Syria: If warring factions and foreign meddling cease, then progress has a chance to flourish.
For years, Iraqis have yearned for independence and the country already has the potential to create a unified society that rejects foreign interference. Recently, genuine pro-sovereignty movements, like National Wisdom Movement and the National Independent Iraqi Front, have emerged that galvanise ordinary Iraqis aspirations for independence and anti-sectarianism while providing a strong opposition to Iran. This increasingly powerful pro-sovereignty movement, overseen by the Sovereignty Alliance for Iraq, transcends traditional Sunni-Shia cultural fissures and may present the biggest threat to Iran’s regional plans yet.
With a stagnant economy and a political system answerable to a foreign power, Iraq finds itself at a crossroads: Support independence, sovereignty and prosperity; or continue to answer to Iran’s call.