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Global economic growth is set to accelerate in 2025 as monetary easing, US resilience, and recoveries in Europe and China drive momentum, with Southeast Asian economies benefiting from positive spillovers.
The Qatar National Bank projects a 3.2 per cent global growth rate, outpacing Bloomberg’s consensus of 3.1pc, the state’s news agency QNA reported.
In its latest commentary, QNB anticipates growth in major economies, driven by controlled inflation, eased financial constraints, and policy adjustments by central banks. Emerging markets, specifically the Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies, are set to benefit from these advancements.
The report said that analysts have consistently underestimated global economic performance, as initial projections for 2023 and 2024 fell short of realised growth by 80 and 40 basis points, respectively.
“Analysts and economists have been proving to be over pessimistic when it comes to forecasting major economies and global growth in recent years,” reported QNA.
The national bank added: “In fact, over the last two years, initial expectations for growth were 80 basis points and 40 bps below realised growth in 2023 and 2024, respectively.”
It forecasts the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by 75 bps and the European Central Bank by 150 bps.
“This should support further investment and consumption growth, as credit becomes cheaper, new investment opportunities become more attractive, and the opportunity costs of spending decrease,” it added.
In the US, QNB predicts growth of 2.2pc in 2025, down from 2.6pc in 2024 but still above the long-term average of 2.3pc.
“The US economy is expected to remain on a strong footing as labour markets are resilient, productivity is growing rapidly with fast technology adoption, and households have robust balance sheets with the strongest financial position in decades,” QNB said.
Europe and China are expected to recover from extended periods of stagnation. Growth in the European area is forecast to rise from 0.7pc in 2024 to 1pc in 2025, supported by lower energy prices and a rebound in global manufacturing demand.
China’s growth is projected to increase from 4.8pc to 5pc, driven by policy easing and renewed economic momentum.
Emerging Asian nations, particularly ASEAN economies, are set to benefit significantly. “Stronger growth in China is likely to be a significant tailwind to emerging Asia in general and ASEAN economies in particular,” QNB said.
The region’s five largest markets, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, are forecast to grow by 5.2pc in 2025, up from 4.4pc in 2024.
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