Europe’s leaders have long known the region is living beyond the means of its ageing, stagnant economy. The question is whether the ructions created by Donald Trump’s second White House term mean they will do something about it.
Less than a month after the president was sworn in, the continent’s once staunch US ally declared it was done paying to keep the peace in Europe. Trump, said Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, “will not allow anyone to turn Uncle Sam into ‘Uncle Sucker’”.
But if Europe must now shoulder the cost of its own defence – right at a time when on its eastern flank Russia is waging war with Ukraine – that risks blowing apart budgets that are already struggling to fund the welfare states that are often seen as the envy of the world.
“We will have to face difficult days, make complicated decisions and even sacrifices which we weren’t expecting until now to ensure this security,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told the Munich Security Conference on Saturday.
However, some fear a political backlash if governments simply slash social spending to buy more soldiers and guns.
“Then we will have division of our society and the only ones that will benefit will be the far-right parties,” German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius told the Munich meeting.
One option for Europe might be to hope Trump’s departure in four years’ time will allow the transatlantic bond to be restored.
But the mood at the Munich gathering suggested that European leaders finally accept that America’s pivot away from their continent – signalled in less confrontational terms over a decade ago by Barack Obama – means they must now step up.
“Our most important task as political leaders is to protect our people,” said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. “Two per cent is not nearly enough,” she said of a barely met target for Nato members to spend on defence as a share of national output. Twenty-three out of 32 Nato members met the target last year after recent increases.
So where might Europe find the money?
Its post-Second World War social contract was built on the idea that Europeans would pay high taxes to get solid welfare safety nets, health provision and pensions in return. Add to that the labour pacts that led to shorter work weeks and longer holidays.
Many voters already feel their governments have reneged on that deal – and the challenge posed by Trump takes the political and economic stakes to a whole new level.
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