India said on Friday its monsoon rains hindered by an El Nino are likely to fall below average in 2026 for the first time in three years, stoking concern over farm output and growth as it battles inflation caused by the Iran war.
The lifeblood of a nearly $4-trillion economy that is the third largest in Asia, the monsoon brings almost 70% of the rains needed to water farms and refill aquifers and reservoirs.
The monsoon is expected to reach 90% of the long-period average this year, said M. Ravichandran, a secretary in the earth sciences ministry.
An El Nino weather effect is likely to develop soon and influence rainfall during the four-month monsoon season from June to September, he added.
The India Meteorological Department defines normal rainfall as being between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.
The South Asian nation is forecast to receive below-average rainfall in June, standing at less than 92% of the long-period average, Ravichandran said.
The El Nino is caused when ocean temperatures exceed normal in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically bringing hot and dry weather to Southeast Asia and other parts of the world.
India has received below-average rainfall during most previous El Nino years, sometimes leading to severe droughts that destroyed crops and forced curbs on grain exports.
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