Here in Bahrain we have become fascinated by the Trump-Hillary “soap opera’. The third and last US presidential debate was subdued by the standards of the first two. There were relatively calm exchanges between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on abortion, gun control, taxes and healthcare policy. There were insults too, but the debate will not be remembered for them. It will be remembered for Trump’s refusal to assure the country that he would accept the result of the election on November 8.
“I will keep you in suspense, okay?” he said, and the question did not seem to be entirely rhetorical. For the record, it is not okay to undermine the verdict of the American people in a presidential election. Doing so weakens faith in the democratic process not just in the US but in countries that look to it as a model of representative government.
For whoever loses, conceding defeat is the first and most fundamental requirement for the peaceful transfer of power that distinguishes democracies from dictatorships. The debate moderator’s question was put to Trump because of his increasingly frequent claims that the election is already “rigged” against him. His answer was, as one fellow Republican put it, beyond the pale. There is every reason to trust the good sense of the vast majority of US voters. Many will not be happy with the result but will stand, as such results have since the Civil War. Trump’s equivocation is still unacceptable, not just because it is irresponsible but also because it is groundless.
He claims that the media has colluded with the Clinton campaign to steal the election; that millions of voters are wrongly registered; and that Clinton should have been barred from standing because of her misuse of a private email server. In reality the media has covered the Trump campaign so exhaustively that he has seen little need to pay for advertising. There is no evidence of widespread electoral fraud, and while Clinton’s email use has been criticised by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, it has not charged her with a crime.
Trump supporters likened his doubts about the electoral system to Al Gore’s demand for a recount in Florida 16 years ago. Next month’s election is, however, unlikely to be open to legitimate dispute on the ground of miscounted ballots.
Nor will the result be open to interpretation. With two weeks to go, most polls give Clinton a substantial lead but point to a divided congress. The country will be divided whoever wins. A Wall Street Journal poll conducted since the Trump campaign was upended by a tape of the candidate bragging about groping women showed him still ahead of Clinton among men and more trusted on trade and the economy.
He has promised to “make America great again”. She has undertaken to unite it, after a uniquely personal and polarising campaign. Should that task fall to her she may yet surprise voters. As a senator she was always more willing to work with Republicans than Barack Obama. As president she would have to show the same appetite for conciliation far beyond Washington.
The new president’s most urgent task will be economic. A misconceived protectionism is in vogue on the left and right, on both sides of the Atlantic, but trade wars would be as bad for America as for the global economy. The next leader of the free world must find the courage to reject isolationism – and will have a right to do so undistracted by doubts about her, or his, legitimacy.
Poll watcher
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