DISGRUNTLED members of Iran’s militias are ready to turn on the country’s theocratic leadership in the event of a popular uprising, according to the country’s exiled crown prince.
However, His Imperial Highness Reza Pahlavi also expressed concerns that hardliners within the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could attempt a coup and impose a “paramilitary dictatorship” when 77-year-old Supreme leader Ali Khamenei dies.
Prince Reza is now urging foreign governments to support an overthrow of the existing Iranian regime, which he predicted would herald a new dawn both for the people of Iran and his country’s role in the region.
“The (Iranian) regime is already fragmented and Khamenei’s death will complicate matters for the regime,” he said in an exclusive interview.
“Would the clerical fundamental nature of the regime change? It could under two plausible scenarios.
“Some factions within the IRGC might attempt a coup and transform the regime to a simpler paramilitary dictatorship, in order to keep control of their interests and power.
“Or they might join the people and allow for a complete regime change to occur with much less bloodshed.
Support
“My focus, desire and expectations are for the latter to happen – and again it depends on a clear decision by foreign governments to support the people of Iran.”
Prince Reza was just 17 when he left Iran for the US, shortly before the 1979 Islamic Revolution of Grand Ayatollah Khomeini.
The heir apparent to the throne of the Imperial State of Iran is publicly advocating a peaceful uprising, strikes and non-co-operation by members of the Iranian public – in the hope of overthrowing those who ousted his father the Shah, who died just over a year after being forced into exile.
“If the ingredients that I am calling for were to be available, both in terms of domestic upheavals and also in the context of foreign governments’ support for the people of Iran, we may indeed see such a scenario successfully work out,” he said.
“I am not suggesting that all members of the IRGC will jump ship, but many will.
“I take great care in cultivating my relations with exactly such elements within the regime.
“I can personally assure you they exist and are increasingly nervous about the ticking of the clock.
“The stronger the resolve of Iranians and the international community of nations, the faster we shall witness defections and the ultimate collapse of the regime.
“Consider this the least costly scenario of change for the people of Iran and for the world. It is certainly a much wiser choice over war.”
Prince Reza said he was able to maintain such contacts from exile thanks to new technologies that allowed a free-flow of information, which he described as “the greatest challenge” facing Iran’s clerics.
In 2014 he founded his own television and radio network, while in 2011 he was named Person Of The Year following an online poll by US-funded Persian station Radio Farda.
“The walls of theocratic regimes have crumbled, in that nothing can be kept in or out of their borders,” he explained.
“Information free-flow is the greatest challenge to the clerical regime that wishes to take Iran back to the 6th or 7th Centuries.
“The clock is ticking and with it the hour of reckoning.”
However, he said he did not pin his hopes for change on America’s tougher approach to Tehran following the election of US President Donald Trump.
“In all my years I have never counted on or depended on any foreign government, the US included,” said Prince Reza.
Mission
“But it is my mission to inform the world, including all foreign governments I am in touch with, that they are best served to invest their focus on the Iranian people – and not a regime that has proven its distrustful nature over and over again.
“The regime is irreformable and no amount of negotiations will change its fundamental commitment to expand its reach and control of an entire region.”
Yet he warned against an all-out war with Iran, saying that could serve to bolster the current regime.
“War is not the answer,” he added.
“War will only bring instability to the region, destroy my country as well as unify the regime and throw it another lifeline.”
One of his proposals is to grant an amnesty to “many disillusioned” members of the IRGC and the Basij militia, who he described as being in a “no man’s land”.
“They need an exit strategy,” he said.
“I know this first hand and for a fact. This is why I have called for a national reconciliation and amnesty.
“This will provide an opportunity for these elements to join the people against the regime.
“They need to be assured that they will have a future beyond this regime.
“The world needs to also stop threatening my country with military attacks.
“This will not help this process, it will force them to rally around the regime and force many of us to oppose such actions.
Legitimacy
“It will be a lose-lose scenario, which will only benefit the regime.”
Meanwhile, he argued the current regime had “long lost any semblance of legitimacy inside Iran” and stated it was “simply a matter time” until the people demanded change.
He said the only question was “how long, or at what cost” would the clerics be able to hold onto power in Iran.
“The method of change I prescribe is an advocacy of a campaign of non-violent, civil disobedience,” he explained.
“It is a means to bring paralysis to the regime from within.
“This coupled with external support for the Iranian people, in the form of political, diplomatic and economic pressures – such as smart sanctions solely targeted against the ruling elite and the controlling IRGC mafia – can tilt the balance in favour of the people.”