IRAN’S threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, if its oil exports are hampered, is just a ploy to placate its “angry and hungry” people, said experts.
However, they added that should Tehran act on its rhetoric, it would be considered “an act of war”.
Last Tuesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned that Tehran would choke off oil shipments from neighbouring countries if the US pressed ahead with its plan to force all nations to stop buying Iranian oil.
Senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Major General Qassem Soleimani said on Thursday the strait will be “for all or for no one”, according to Tasnim news agency.
The Bahrain-based US Fifth Fleet responded by saying it was dedicated to protecting commercial ships in the area.
Experts underlined the GCC nations’ readiness to counter the situation with the help of the US Navy and allies, while at the same time citing the Iranian military decision-makers’ lack of readiness to carry out the threat.
Pressure
“The IRGC primarily threatens the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure tactic against Western states, which ultimately affects international customers of the global energy market,” Bahrain Centre for Strategic, International and Energy Studies (Derasat) strategic studies programme analyst Mahmood Abdul Ghaffar told the GDN.
“It attempts to sustain and increase crises in order to undermine Arab Gulf states and its international allies.
“An actual blockage of the strait would be catastrophic for the Arab Gulf states and neighbouring states, such as Iraq and Iran itself.
“A disruption would undoubtedly impede the timely shipment of oil, causing oil-producing states to lose significant revenue, and importers would face supply shortages and higher costs,” said Mr Ghaffar, noting that the longer the disruption meant the greater the losses.
Carrying a third of the world’s seaborne oil daily, the Strait of Hormuz links Middle East crude producers to key markets in Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America and beyond.
The Arabian Gulf accounts for 30 per cent of global energy supplies, approximately 17 million barrels per day, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Mr Ghaffar also emphasised the GCC nations’ alternate export routes to mitigate the risk, despite capacity limitations of the pipelines.
These include the Fujairah pipeline that extends to the Indian Ocean and the Saudi-Iraqi pipeline that runs from the Iraqi border across the kingdom to the Port of Mu’ajjiz located in the Red Sea.
Kuwait-based Gulf Monitor Group executive manager Dr Zafer Al Ajmi dismissed Iran’s threat, pointing out that it did not block the strait even during the eight-year-long Iran-Iraq war.
“Moreover, this is not a priority for Tehran’s military decision-makers as the groups responsible for blocking the strait are not in their best readiness.
“It takes time to train the group and besides as blocking the waterway by sinking a ship will not last as the US Navy and its allies will remove the blockage in a matter of hours.
“This is nothing more than propaganda – to show the Iranian people that they have a margin of manoeuverability and they can threaten the West.”
However, Dr Al Ajmi cautioned that insurance companies could take advantage of the situation by increasing insurance rates on ships going to the Gulf.
Anger
The GDN on Friday reported Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa said the Iranian regime was “shooting itself day after day”.
Referring to the threat, Shaikh Khalid tweeted the regime was ignoring its people who “are hungry and angry and its national currency is plummeting”.
Dismissing the threat as “hot air and bluster”, Bahrain-based security analyst Omar Mahmood said, “If Iran were to actually do it, it would amount to an act of war and given the dire internal situation Tehran finds itself in today, it is not something it can afford.”
He said a blockade of the strait would raise global oil prices which would affect Europe and countries that Iran traded with, such as China, and mar any goodwill Iran has managed to gain.
“Lastly, such a move gives the Trump administration further ammunition to unite the international community against Iran.”
On Thursday, US Central Command spokesman Navy Captain Bill Urban said that along with its partners the US Navy was ready to provide and promote security and stability in the region.
“Together, we stand ready to ensure the freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce wherever international law allows,” he said.
Bahrain is home to the US Fifth Fleet, which commands the Combined Maritime Force that covers 20 countries and includes three critical choke points – the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal and the Strait of Bab Al Mandeb at the southern tip of Yemen.
Washington-based think tank Gulf State Analytics senior adviser Dr Theodre Karasik said there was a need for concerned agencies to prepare to combat “a new geopolitical reality”.
“If there were a closure, agencies involved in managing the crisis include, of course, those of infrastructure protection, defence agencies and so on, but more importantly is going to be the ability to clear the strait and then maintain the free flow of transit goods in a new geopolitical reality.”
China, which along with India accounts for 85 per cent of oil purchased from the Arab Gulf region, on Friday condemned Iran’s statement.
Tehran should make more efforts to ensure stability in the Middle East and get along with its neighbours, said Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong.
In May, US President Donald Trump pulled out of a multinational deal under which sanctions on Iran were lifted in return for curbs to its nuclear programme.
Washington has since told countries they must stop buying Iranian oil from November 4 or face financial measures.
raji@gdn.com.bh
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