TEHRAN’S retaliation for Soleimani’s killing had been feared as a potential step towards a messy all-out war. Gold and oil prices rose in anticipation of conflict. In the event the dozen missiles did not harm any soldiers and the gesture proved to be a theatrical attempt to settle scores with America.
There should, however, be no complacency about Tehran’s intentions. Various leaders called for a process of de-escalation to prevent a slide towards a showdown between the US and Iran. Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif suggested that the attack on American troops had been proportionate and had satisfied his country’s honour.
But this conflict is far from over. The European Union’s hunger for a resolution through dialogue rather than hard power sounds worthy but ignores the facts. Iran has no hope of matching America’s military strength and will seek to avoid any further head-to-head confrontation. Its intentions, though, are evident: not a negotiated settlement that ties its hands but rather free rein to spread its malign influence across the region. This was spelt out by Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “What is important in addition to retaliation,” he said, “is to end the US’s corrupting presence in the region.”
Iran will not be satisfied until the US and all Western states have withdrawn their troops. To that end it intends to deploy proxy armies that Soleimani’s Revolutionary Guards recruited and trained across the Middle East. The main battleground will be Iraq. Under the guise of retribution for Soleimani’s death, Iran intends to raise the political cost of staying in its neighbourhood.
Starved of funds, it cannot support a powerful army that would match its ambitions. It has, however, become a skilled practitioner of hybrid warfare. Some countries deemed friendly towards the US are hunkering down for trouble. It’s fanciful to imagine that Tehran can be talked or bribed or coerced into better behaviour. The best way forward will be strengthening the governance of flailing states like Iraq, making them better able to fend off the encroachments of Iran. No-one is pretending that it’s going to be easy, though.
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