As Covid-19 took the world by surprise earlier this year with unprecedented high morbidity and mortality rates the world had never expected, scientists predicted millions and millions of people to die in the Third World countries where a lack of medical doctors, shortage of hospital beds and medicines mix to create poor public health services.
Now after more than six months into the pandemic, statistics show that the scientists’ prediction was totally wrong.
For instance, Africa with 54 recognised sovereign states, nine territories and two de facto independent states and a population of more than 1.3 billion has witnessed slightly greater than 1.5 million cases and 36,399 deaths (Johns Hopkins University, National health agencies, October 4), fewer than deaths in the UK (42,350) reported on the same day.
While in the Western world public health is advanced and appears to challenge any eventuality, the numbers are astronomical.
The deaths in the US have passed 200,000 at the end of September. Similarly, in other developed countries the number is much greater than in Africa.
Surprisingly, in Africa, Eritrea and Seychelles have zero death rates while Burundi has only one so far.
There is hope that a vaccine would be available later this year or early next year, according to reports, and some advanced countries have paid drug companies billions of dollars in advance to receive the first batch of jabs.
The poor countries of the world are unlikely to have easy access to the vaccines unless the World Health Organisation and other donors intervene.
Again, another prediction will come to the fore: Vaccinated countries will have lower coronavirus infection rates than non-vaccinated ones. Let us wait to see if this prediction holds water.
Let us not forget as well that the Spanish flu of 1918, which claimed more than 50 million lives, ended without vaccination.
Relying solely on the introduction of vaccination will not end the pandemic unless complemented by strictly following medical professionals’ instructions including wearing face masks and social distancing, say experts.
Wrong predictions lead to chaos in society. Predictions need to take several factors into account. Poverty is only one.
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