The Russia-Turkey drafted ceasefire aimed at ending the Syrian conflict has been endorsed by the UN Security Council and throws rays of hope on a peaceful political settlement between the feuding factions.
By brokering a peace deal, Russia and Turkey have succeeded in laying a foundation for future political negotiations where the West has failed.
Despite paying a heavy price in the Syrian conflict, including the loss of thousands of its soldiers and the best of its generals, Iran appears to have been isolated in the peace deal.
It has played a passive role, limited to evacuation of civilians and militants from Aleppo.
Iran’s agenda doesn’t appear to sit well with Russia and Turkey.
Iran and its surrogate militias want to finish the Syrian conflict through military means, leaving no room for a political settlement – something that is unlikely to deliver a permanent solution.
That is the only way Iran can dictate the Syrian scenario, as peaceful negotiation proposals are in short supply from the regime.
Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, emboldened by a series of military successes, is reported to have said he wanted to retake every inch of the country by military force.
However, according to reports Russia has informed Assad that Aleppo will be the last battle in the country, opening a door for a political solution.
The political process initiated by Russia and Turkey is now underway, despite reports that the ceasefire has been violated.
That it is expected in any war scenario as some rogue militias and government troops settle scores.
However, Putin’s decision to reduce Moscow’s military contingent in Syria shows the extent to which Russia has committed itself to a political deal.
Russia and Turkey are also proposing to decentralise the power structure of Syria, an important move where the country would be divided into autonomous federal states.
While Assad would be allowed to head the state until the next election, voting would reportedly herald his ultimate departure.
Next month proposed peace talks are expected to take place in Astana, the Kazakh capital, between the Assad regime and opposition groups without the US.
It is a blow to the Obama administration, which has missed several chances to end the conflict.
Political pundits and analysts forwarded the proposal a long time ago during the early stages of the conflict.
However, no party took note of it.
If agreed sooner the bloodshed could have been stopped and hundreds of thousands of innocent lives could have been saved.
Should it prove successful Iran will be the loser and its dream of regional hegemony will be shattered. In due course, Assad will be removed from power and with him Iranian influence will fade from Syrian affairs.
Last month, the deputy commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Hosein Salami was quoted as saying: “After Aleppo our next step is liberating Bahrain and Yemen,” endorsing Iran’s expansionist policy.
For this reason, Iran is likely to oppose the peace proposal.
Analysts believe Russia and Turkey have a more difficult task persuading Iran, rather than opposition groups, to accept political negotiations.
Among other things, Tehran wants the election of another Alawite Shia to head Syria following Assad’s removal, maintaining its influence in the country and an access corridor to Hizbollah in Lebanon – possibly for arms consignments.
The ceasefire will serve as a litmus test for chances of ending the Syrian conflict.
There is a long way to go, and it may even collapse at times, but it remains the ultimate blueprint upon which the conflict will be resolved.