When Donald Trump shows up for work, it’s anyone’s guess as to what he will do. Over the past month, many reporters have asked me, “What do you think Trump will do and what are you most concerned about?.” My simple answer has been, “I know what worries me most, but I have no idea what he’ll do because I don’t think he knows either.”
During the campaign, Trump promised a boatload of dramatic initiatives and actions. After winning, many have been substantially changed or just disappeared. Hillary Clinton isn’t going to jail; Mexico isn’t paying for a wall; Muslims aren’t being banned; and, lest we forget, Wall Street and lobbyists aren’t problems anymore.
We’ll soon see what Trump will do. If I had to guess, I’d assume that he’ll undo some of President Obama’s executive orders that protected air quality, water purity, consumers and workers. These will all be serious setbacks, but they won’t make good on the new president’s “big promises” to transform the country from the dark post-Apocalyptic nightmare of his speeches to his vaguely defined vision of being “Great Again”.
Donald Trump likes to be in control, but as he will soon learn, the president is not so much captain of the team as he is captive of the team. He’s not the only actor in this drama nor does he have complete control over events, or even over those who work for him.
Being president is not as easy as starring in your own TV show or running a campaign. When you consider the degree to which Trump’s cabinet appointees have already made clear in Senate hearings their disagreements with his views on critical issues and the extent to which the positions of some cabinet appointees differ dramatically from those of key White House staff, internal conflicts will make for messy decision-making.
Trump will also need Congress and the much maligned GOP establishment to support his agenda. And here too, his control will be limited. Republicans in both houses will give Trump a bit of a honeymoon, but they know that he starts his presidency with low approval ratings. With all Members of Congress and eight Republican Senators facing re-election in 2018. One big blunder, embarrassing incident, or ethics or financial scandal and we’ll see how loyal Republicans will be to “their” president.
George W Bush was confronted with the horror of 9/11, the devastation of Katrina, and the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. He squandered the world’s goodwill after 9/11, launching two disastrous wars and engaging in torture abroad and repression at home. He bungled Katrina and struggled to deal with the recession.
Barack Obama began his race for the White House before the recession hit. It was presented to him as an unwanted gift. He inherited an Israeli-Palestinian conflict reeling from the disastrous Gaza War and the election of an incorrigible and intransigent Israeli leader. He also had to contend with a resurgent Russia, an increasingly aggressive China, and the unsettling out-of-control consequences of the so-called Arab Spring.
Obama successfully managed an economic turn-around while managing to pass a sweeping health care reform bill and other significant pieces of social legislation. But he had much less success in foreign affairs. Netanyahu was a persistent headache whom Obama felt pressured to deal with gingerly. His efforts to “reset” with Russia and the Muslim World failed, and his desire to “pivot to Asia” was stymied by domestic politics and the unravelling of the Middle East.
As much as the new president has to be concerned about dissension within his Administration, an unco-operative Congress, independent-minded foreign leaders, foreign wars or terror attacks or other calamities that may occur, I am concerned with how a volatile and unpredictable Trump will respond to situations he can’t control. He hasn’t demonstrated the patience, discipline, and thoughtfulness that will be required to handle complex issues.
So yes, I am troubled by the prospect of Trump undoing some of the key elements of Obama’s progressive agenda. But more than that, I am concerned that on any given day, given what we’ve seen of his personality and what we know about the demands of the job he has now assumed, we could be one Tweet away from an international incident or one terror attack away from a campaign of mass repression.