This week, all eyes will be on the fascinating race for New York City mayor. We’ll pay attention because New York has an outsized role in American life as home to some of America’s defining cultural symbols: the Statue of Liberty, Empire State Building, Times Square, Broadway and Harlem’s Apollo Theatre.
It’s also the country’s most populous and demographically complex city that’s beset by many challenges that confront America, writ large: crime, housing affordability, immigration, racial and ethnic tensions, problems with policing, gentrification and political polarisation.
Yet, New York remains a magnet for hundreds of thousands of new immigrants and young people from across the US, attracted by its allure and promise of opportunity.
Given New York’s complexity, it’s a wonder that any politician would willingly take on the Herculean task of governing it. But just days away from New York’s primary elections, nine major candidates are vying to be the Democratic Party’s nominee in November’s general election.
This contest is even more compelling because of its multiple layers of subtext.
Among the major Democrats running, there’s a former governor, two city-wide elected officials, one former city-wide official and four state legislators. The two current leaders are former Governor Andrew Cuomo and state representative Zohran Mamdani.
Cuomo, age 67, served 10 years as governor until forced to resign under a cloud of charges, ranging from corruption to credible accusations of sexual harassment by a dozen women.
Endorsed by much of the state’s Democratic establishment, Cuomo has the financial support of billionaire-funded political action committees spending millions on his behalf. His campaign has focused on his experience – a double-edged sword – and emphasised his centrism, which in this polarised political environment attracts some New Yorkers and repels others.
Mamdani, age 33, has served a scant four years in the state legislature, but his progressive agenda and charismatic style have catapulted him into a near-tie. Endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America and other left-leaning organisations, Mamdani’s grassroots-led campaign leads in individual donations and a record number of volunteers.
Both have markedly different, yet prominent family backgrounds. Cuomo is the son of former Governor Mario Cuomo, a revered figure in the Italian American community. Before running for governor, Andrew served as his father’s chief of staff and ‘fixer’, and later as President Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.
Mamdani is a Ugandan-born Muslim of Indian descent whose father is a world-renowned progressive intellectual and professor at Columbia University and mother is an award-winning filmmaker.
Mamdani came to the US with his parents at age seven and became a US citizen in 2018. He was a student activist and after graduating was active in progressive causes and campaigns. His history of activism and compelling personality have led to comparisons of his meteoric rise to Barack Obama’s.
Different polls show Cuomo up by 10, or by four, or Mamdani up by two. Beyond the horse race, the polls tell another story – putting the divisions plaguing today’s Democratic Party in stark relief. Cuomo leads decisively among voters who are Black, Catholic or Protestant, poorer, older, non-college educated, and are moderate or conservative.
Mamdani leads or is tied with Cuomo among White, Latino, college-educated, wealthier, liberal and younger voters. And Mamdani leads among a large groups of New York Democrats: those with no religious affiliation.
Notably, despite Cuomo and establishment Jewish organisations making an issue of Mamdani’s refusal to take a solidly pro-Israel line, he’s running closer than expected to Cuomo for the Jewish vote – and may get even closer as the third-place candidate, Brian Lander, who is Jewish and critical of Israel, has ‘cross-endorsed’ Mamdani in the primary.
What the polls expose are the same divisions Democrats see on the national level among component groups of their coalition: young versus old, white versus non-white, religious versus non-religious, wealthier college-educated versus working class.
This election’s ‘ranked-choice voting’ – in which voters rank their top five candidates and votes are tallied, weighted by preference – makes it a toss-up. A final layer: This fascinating contest is prelude to November’s race, when the Democratic nominee will face New York’s current mayor running as an independent – and possibly the primary’s runner-up as either Cuomo or Mamdani could run on a third-party slate.
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