Reports on heat conditions leading to well-above-average temperatures are currently impacting many parts of Western Europe, North America, North Africa, Middle East and Central Asia.
For example, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) recorded a temperature of 46C in early July 2025 in southern Spain, with nearly identical temperatures in Portugal, Italy and Greece. It was also reported that 40 per cent of meteorological stations in Europe had recorded temperatures exceeding 40C.
In Bahrain, the highest temperature recorded in June 2025 at Durrat Al Bahrain was 48.5C on Wednesday, establishing a record in Bahrain’s history, as the highest temperature recorded for the month.
Although many factors contribute to these high temperature records, there is significant concern that the intense military bombing in Gaza by Israelis (since October 7, 2023) and the Russia-Ukraine War (since February 24, 2022), along with the extensive US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities using 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) – GBU-57 (each weighing 13 tonnes delivered by 145 US-Israeli military aircraft), had a contribution.
Additionally, the mutual rocket bombardment between Israel and Iran lasted for 12 days during which thousands of bombs exploded on both sides. Iran launched around 550 ballistic missiles at Israel and Israel retaliated with about 1,700 ballistic missiles which, of course, resulted in release of heat and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and hence global warming.
The question is: Do bombings and explosions from these four military conflicts contribute to these heat waves and global warming?
The answer, unfortunately, is yes!
First, we must know that carbon dioxide (CO2) is formed after bomb explosions as a result of the rapid combustion (oxidation) of carbon-rich organic compounds present in the explosive TNT. These compounds react with oxygen (present inside the explosive or in the air) to form various gases (nitrogen N2, carbon monoxide CO and water vapour H2O, which is a global warming gas), including carbon dioxide, in addition to releasing a huge amount of energy as a result of the sudden rapid reaction and the release of enormous heat in a very short time.
Our calculations estimate that the amount of CO2 equivalent released from the bombs (exothermic or heat-releasing interactions) from these military strikes is approximately one billion tonnes, while the reported current amount of CO2 in our atmosphere (excluding emissions from war) is 53bn tonnes. This means that the CO2 emissions resulting from these four wars represent 1.8pc, indicating that the global temperature has increased by nearly 2pc, raising the earth’s temperature from 15C to 15.3C. This 0. 3C increase is equivalent to the heat released from the explosion of 30,000 atomic bombs, as a 1C increase in the earth’s temperature is equivalent to 100,000 nuclear bombs.
While the immediate emissions from individual bombardments might seem small compared to global emissions, the cumulative impact of ongoing conflicts, combined with emissions from military activities worldwide, contributes to the overall rise in global temperatures and aggravate global warming and subsequently climate change. Unfortunately, military emissions are often not included in annual national climate reporting or the IPCC National Climate Report.
According to some sources, raising the earth’s temperature by 1C requires approximately 5 Exa-joules (5 x 1018 J) of energy. This amount of energy is often compared to the energy released by multiple atomic bombs. It was reported that the earth’s current rate of heat accumulation is equivalent to the energy of 4 or 5 Hiroshima atomic bombs detonating every second. Knowing that the ‘Little Boy’ (Hiroshima) bomb releases approximately 6.3×1013 J and the ‘Fat Man’ (Nagasaki) bomb releases approximately 8.4×1013 J, we conclude that a 1C increase in the earth’s temperature is equivalent to the heat liberated from the explosion of 100,000 nuclear bombs.
Conclusion:
• Conflicts such as those in Gaza, the Israel-Iran mutual bombing, the US strike on nuclear facilities in Iran and the Russia-Ukraine war do contribute to global warming by releasing significant amounts of GHG, primarily CO2, from fuel use, explosives and especially from the massive reconstruction efforts required after destruction. These emissions are substantial compared to the annual emissions of many individual countries.
• These conflicts do not directly cause a measurable increase in global atmospheric temperature. The heat released may localise and dissipate. The impact on global warming derives from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions over time, which contribute to the overall warming trend caused by human activities worldwide.
• The true climate impact of war extends beyond direct emissions, encompassing environmental degradation, resource depletion and diverting attention and resources from climate action. However, in terms of immediate, direct atmospheric temperature increase, the effect is negligible.
The author is Professor of Applied Physics at Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain
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