The outlook for British home prices has barely changed in the last three months on steady expectations for falling borrowing costs, according to a Reuters poll of property experts who said the government would achieve around two-thirds of its construction target.
Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer has vowed to build 1.5 million homes over parliament’s term, which ends in mid-2029 at the latest, but the poll median found the government would manage around only a million.
None of the 11 respondents to an additional question saw the goal being fully met. Responses ranged from 700,000 to 1.3m.
“The government’s pledge of 1.5m homes by the end of 2029 is a fantasy,” said Russell Quirk at estate agency eMoov, who predicted a range of 950,000-1,050,000.
“The top 10 house builders neither have the capacity nor the P&L (profit and loss) motivation to deliver.”
There were around 817,000 housing completions in the five years to 2024, according to government data. The last time there were more than 1 million homes completed in a comparable period was in 1976-1981.
British homebuilder Persimmon did, however, say in March it would construct more houses this year and target improved margins after 2024 profit beat expectations, while rival Barratt Redrow last month reiterated its target to build around 17,000 homes this year.
With homes in short supply, the cost of buying one is expected to increase.
Nationally, home prices were predicted to rise 3.5 per cent this year, matching a February forecast but above predictions in another Reuters poll for overall inflation of 3.0pc. Next year they will increase 4.0pc and in 2027 3.5pc, the May 19-29 poll of 19 housing market experts predicted.
In London, house prices were seen rising 3.0pc this year, 4.0pc next and 3.8pc in 2027.
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