Eight Opec+ members will likely approve another oil output hike tomorrow, sources said, with the group still debating the final size of the increase for September amid fears of further supply disruptions from Russia and a seasonal slowdown in demand.
The group has sped up output hikes in recent months citing low global stocks and rising demand. The meeting tomorrow, scheduled to begin at 2pm Bahrain time, comes amid fresh US demands for India to stop buying Russian oil as Washington seeks ways to push Moscow for a peace deal with Ukraine. Fresh EU sanctions have also pushed Indian state refiners to suspend Russian oil purchases.
Opec+ could boost output by as much as 548,000 barrels per day in September – similar to what it did in August, three sources familiar with Opec+ talks said.
A fourth source said discussions on the volume were ongoing and the hike could be smaller. Opec+ began output increases in April with a hike of 138,000 bpd followed by hikes of 411,000 bpd in May, June and July.
Opec+, which pumps about half of the world’s oil, had been curtailing production for several years to support the market. But it reversed course this year to regain market share, and as US President Donald Trump demanded Opec pump more oil.
Opec and authorities in Saudi Arabia did not respond to requests for comment.
If Opec+ agrees to raise production by 548,000 bpd in September, it will have fully unwound its previous production cut of 2.2 million bpd while allowing the UAE to raise output by 300,000 bpd.
Opec+ still has in place a separate voluntary cut of about 1.65m bpd from eight members and a 2m bpd cut across all members, which expire at the end of 2026.
Opec+ won’t release more oil after September, US bank Goldman Sachs said this week, citing rising US oil output, slowing global economic growth and a build up in oil stocks after the end of the driving season in September.
“It is too presumptuous to even start talking about the next phase of the voluntary cuts of 1.66m bpd as those discussions haven’t even started,” said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects.
Meanhile, oil sank as the outlook for the world’s largest economy darkened after a barrage of poor US data and tariff announcements, weighing on the prospects for energy demand growth.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell by as much as 2.9pc to trade below $68 a barrel yesterday, the biggest intraday slide since July 10.
US jobs growth cooled sharply over the past three months, while factory activity contracted in July at the fastest clip in nine months, in a sign the economy is shifting into a lower gear amid widespread uncertainty. The swath of bearish data increased investor concerns that the impact of US President Donald Trump’s ever-changing tariff rates – which had so far been muted – has finally begun to weigh on economic growth.
The weaker data come as President Donald Trump finalised plans for tariffs on several countries, including a higher rate on neighbour Canada, though oil is exempt.
“Tariffs are now officially a part of daily life. With the catalyst in the rearview, focus must shift to the fallout,” said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
Oil traders had been forced to the sidelines in recent weeks as numerous wild cards surrounding US trade policy and Opec+ production confounded supply-and-demand outlooks. The upredictable environment, which initially caused wild price swings earlier in the year, has dampened risk-on sentiment and sapped volatility from the market.
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