An impending ‘super’ El Niño is likely to inflict a combined $10 billion to $20bn hit on affected African countries and trigger mass migration from hard-hit areas, the African Development Bank’s top climate expert told Reuters.
Forecasters are warning that the El Niño weather pattern – which often drives severe droughts, flooding and storms in Africa – could turn into one of the strongest ever seen if current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue. As well as the threat to food and water security, government finances and banking sectors could also be undermined if disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay the connected loans.
“Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries’ GDP by 1pc to 2pc on average, which is about $10bn to $20bn across the continent,” Anthony Nyong, the AfDB’s director for climate change and green growth, said in an interview.
The AfDB’s most recent forecasts in May predicted Africa as a whole would see 4.2pc economic growth this year, rising to 4.4pc in 2027 assuming the US-Israeli war on Iran eases.
That, however, was before forecasts of a ‘super’ or ‘Godzilla’ El Niño were made.
Nyong’s estimate of the likely $10 to $20bn hit is the first given by a major multilateral development bank in relation to El Niño. He did not provide a country-by-country breakdown of the estimate but warned it was unlikely to be a one-off either.
Drought conditions, which much of the Sahel region has been suffering from in recent years, may persist, while Mozambique’s experiences after Cyclone Idai in 2019 show it can take years to recover from major storms.
Governments were also getting snared in what Nyong described as the ‘climate finance trap’, where they lack the resources to respond to crises and are forced to raid health, education or infrastructure budgets to meet the costs.
The 2023 to 2024 El Niño event caused severe drought in Southern Africa and heavy rains and flooding in East Africa. These conditions led to widespread crop failures, surging food prices, and record-breaking sea-level spikes along the continent’s coastlines.
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