Analysis of the US Grand Prix, brought to you by Bahrain International Circuit
Formula 1 arrived in Austin with Kimi Antonelli having his first mathematical chance of taking the drivers’ championship.
He would need to win the race, with George Russell finishing ninth or lower and Lewis Hamilton fifth or lower.
When asked whether this was something at the front of his mind as he arrived in Texas, he offered the standard response that he was focused on delivering for this particular race.
Whilst that was the focus, there surely must have been a bit of human instinct that will have let his mind wander into the zone of the bigger picture possibility – the chance to become the youngest ever champion in the history of F1.
The start of the race in Austin was an early sign that Antonelli would dominate. Despite being on theoretically slower medium tyres, he bolted off the line and was over two seconds ahead by the end of the first lap.
From there, it was a race where he didn’t seem to have any troubles and his victory seemed effortless.
It wasn’t immediately clear whether a one or two stop strategy would be the quickest for this race.
Antonelli celebrates on the podium after winning the US Grand Prix
Historically, Austin has had significant trye wear, leaning most teams to a two-stop plan. Mercedes thought differently, opting for a single stop and only added to the dominance shown by the young Italian.
For his teammate Ruseell, he continued a trend that has been prevalent for much of the season of luck not going his way. An early tussle with Piastri sent him off track with the Stewards deciding he gained an advantage.
he subsequent five second penalty was served at his pit stop, putting him out of position and well out of contention. He would go on to finish eighth.
The contrast between the two Mercedes drivers was stark, not least when you think back to the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia, which was where this latest Mercedes upgrade first appeared.
In Sepang, the upgrade actually made the car slower, but after a series of further testing and understanding at the following race in Singapore, Antonelli more than got to grips with the car in Austin and had even managed to secure a surprising pole position the previous day.
What is most remarkable about the comparison between the two Mercedes drivers is that at the start of the season, you would have expected most people to have favored Russell ahead of Antonelli for a shot at the title, not least because the British driver had secured more than double the points of Antonelli across the 2025 season.
However, since the opening race in Australia, it has all been about the young Italian. Five wins in a row through the early part of the season with a further four wins from July onwards. His focus has been relentless and his temperament seemingly unbreakable.
Behind the dominant Antonelli, it was down to Verstappen and Leclerc to provide entertainment, with some interesting tussles in the early stages. However, it was Leclerc who came through for second, marginally ahead of Verstappen.
Leclerc had shown promising signs for Ferrari throughout the weekend, having topped both practice sessions on Friday and was clearly quicker than Verstappen for the latter part of the race. As for Verstappen, his championship challenge is now officially over.
Remarkably, this is the first time he has been mathematically out of a title race since 2020.
Further back in the race, Hamilton produced a solid fourth in the other Ferrari and Lando Norris put his one stop strategy to good use to finish fifth.
Hadjar in the other Red Bull was sixth, followed by Piastri.
Whilst Antonelli wasn’t able to secure the championship in Austin, his win makes it almost a mathematical certainty that he will secure the crown very soon indeed.
He will need to leave the next race weekend in Mexico with a lead of 100 points, given there are four more races left after Mexico. That means, irrespective of what his closest title contenders achieve, a ninth-place finish or better will secure him the crown.
He would then become the youngest ever champion in the history of the sport. What’s more impressive is that the current record for the youngest champion was Sebastian Vettel in 2010, aged 23. Antonelli, in just his second year in F1, is only 20.
In all likelihood, given his recent form and coolness under pressure, we will see history made in Mexico.
- Laurence Jones is senior manager, Marketing and Communications, Bahrain International Circuit
l.jones@bic.com.bh
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