The coming Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be "near-normal," after three years of unusually low storm activity, US government scientists said on Friday.
Expect about 10 to 16 tropical storms, of which four to eight could become hurricanes, said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre.
Between one and four of the storms could become major hurricanes of Category Three or higher on a scale of 1-5.
The end of the warming climate pattern El Nino and the arrival of the cooling trend in the equatorial Pacific known as La Nina could favour the increase in hurricane activity, said NOAA administrator Kathryn Sullivan.
"We could be in for more activity than we have seen in recent years," she said, but noted that the forecast "makes no prediction with respect to landfalls or tracks at this point."
The federal agency acknowledged some overall uncertainty in the forecast.
"This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it's difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Centre.
Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.
The 2015 season was considered below average with 11 tropical storms in the Atlantic, of which four became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes.
The long-term average, taken over the years 1981-2010, typically allows for 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
NOAA will issue another, updated Atlantic hurricane forecast in early August, just before the storm season reaches its peak.
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