The Earth could be headed towards a ‘mini ice-age’, solar physicists say.
A new study, by Professor Valentina Zharkova, predicts that in fifteen years, the Earth will be hit by another Maunder Minimum – a name previously given to the mini ice-age that caused the River Thames to freeze between 1646 and 1715.
We are now able to predict the solar cycles with greater accuracy than before, thanks to new models that show irregularities in the sun’s 11-year heartbeat.
The video above explains the Solar Cycle. (Youtube - NASA Goddard)
The model shows that solar activity will fall by 60 percent around 2030, which could trigger a decade-long mini ice-age.
The model draws on the dynamo effects within two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one within its deep zone of convection.
The team predicts that during Cycle 26, which is said to run between 2030 and 2040, the two waves will either disrupt each or cancel each other out, causing a solar minimum. This in turn means that there will little to no sunspots – another strong indicator of solar activity – and therefore the severity of heat given out will significantly decrease. The more sunspots there are, the higher the solar activity.
“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun,” said Zharkova, according to Daily Mail. “Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’.”
Zharkova also explained that when the two waves are in synch with each other is when there is high solar activity. However, when the two waves are completely out of synch with each other, the conditions of the ‘Maunder Minimum’ are seen.
In the past, solar physicists knew that solar activity was due to a dynamo caused by fluid convection deep within the Sun. However, once Zharkova and her team added a second dynamo closer to the surface, they found that the two waves complement each other and provide greater accuracy in their predictions.
“Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 percent,” she said, as she presented her team’s findings at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales.
In addition, the team compared their predictions to the average sunspot numbers. All predictions and observations were closely matched.
&uuid=(email))