Despite serving as a backbone of the Syrian army in defeating various strains of rebels that have waged an all-out war against Bashar Al Assad, including the so-called Islamic State (IS), Hizbollah seems to have been left behind from any future negotiations that aim to determine the future of Syria.
The ceasefire agreement, brokered by Russia and Turkey, also demands the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Syria including Hizbollah, another blow to the terrorist organisation. The peace initiative has received blessing from the UN Security Council. Thus Hizbollah’s withdrawal is imminent. However, sources indicate that Hizbollah has rejected the Russia-Turkey-mediated ceasefire agreement for the Syrian civil war, according to the Hebrew News (January 17).
It said that ‘the Iranian-backed, Lebanon-based terrorist organisation that has been fighting on behalf of President Bashar Al Assad is furious about Ankara’s clause in the agreement requiring all foreign forces to withdraw from Syria, before a diplomatic solution is reached or even discussed.’ Though, Hizbollah has joined the Syrian conflict for its own very survival; it was ordered by its sponsor, Iran, to fight in support of the Syrian regime. Now the order to withdraw is coming not from Iran but from Turkey and Russia.
This development shows Iran’s declining influence in the outcome of the conflict, which will no doubt anger Hizbollah. Several high-ranking Hizbollah commanders that have won battles and wars have complained of the exclusion of the group’s voice in the future of the country. Hizbollah has lost thousands of soldiers and high-ranking commanders in various battle fronts in the Syrian conflict. Political analysts believe that with Iran more or less sidelined from the peace plan set up by Russia and Turkey, Hizbollah’s frustration has increased and some commanders have regretted its involvement in the Syrian crisis
As Dalal Saoud wrote in The Arab Weekly ( October 3, 2016), ‘Hizbollah’s engagement in the Syrian war was for its very existence. The collapse of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad would result in Hizbollah losing a major ally that secured a much-needed supply route from its sponsor-Iran.’ However, its involvement in the Syrian crisis not only has discredited its position as a once a ‘pan Arab’ army but also aggravated the Sunni -Shi’ite divide leaving sectarianism to take root in the Arab world in general and the Middle East in particular.
It used to be a force to be reckoned with and a potential to confront the strongest army in the Middle East – the Israeli army. Nowadays, Hizbollah is seen merely as a Shi’ite force, an Iranian surrogate, a proxy army with little or no support from Muslims around the world. Its exclusion from the political process in the Syrian conflict where it has paid a heavy price has worried its leaders and some reports are emerging indicating that there is a building up of political friction among its leaders.
More importantly, however, is how the withdrawal is seen at home.
Have the Lebanese people lost their beloved sons for a bad cause? Will the withdrawal affect its domestic political future? Will it lose the popular support it once enjoyed? Hizbollah leaders are now busy trying to figure out possible answers to such questions that can help it regain public support.
However, after returning home without substance, convincing the public seems to be an uphill task. With the prospect of political settlement on the horizon that can potentially end the Syrian crisis, Hizbollah and Iran appear to have understood the wrong approach they have taken in trying to solve the conflict. The case is now owned by Russia and Turkey leaving Iran and Hizbollah in a quagmire.
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