NEW YORK: Shares of smaller US companies are outpacing a rally in the broader equity market as they draw investors looking to scoop up cheaply valued stocks and those betting the group has already priced in an economic slowdown.
The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 10.4 per cent in July against a 9.1pc gain for the benchmark S&P 500, its biggest percentage-point outperformance on a monthly basis since February.
Small caps tend to be more domestically oriented, less profitable and carry a heavier debt load than their larger counterparts, often putting them in the firing line when worries over the economy take hold and markets become volatile.
This year was no exception: the Russell 2000 has fallen 16pc in 2022 despite July’s rebound, compared with the S&P 500’s 13.3pc drop, as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy faster than expected to fight red-hot inflation and sapped appetite for risk across markets.
The small-cap index is now at its cheapest versus the large-cap Russell 1000 since March 2020, according to Jefferies data, catching the eye of some bargain-hunting investors.
Some investors also believe that prices for small caps – which are viewed as more attuned to the economy’s fluctuations – may already be reflecting a potential recession, limiting their downside if predictions of one come to pass.
Small caps appear to be “baking in a lot of economic pain already,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said in a report earlier in July.
“Recessions have tended to be good buying opportunities for small caps,” they added.
Citi US equity strategists wrote “stocks down the market cap spectrum appear closer to pricing in recession than their large cap peers.”
Not everyone is convinced it is time to buy small caps. Appetite for shares of smaller companies could quickly sour if inflation remains persistent and the Fed is forced to raise rates more aggressively than expected, inflicting more pain on the economy.
The central bank raised interest rates by 2.25 percentage points already this year as it fights the worst inflation in four decades, but Powell offered little specific guidance about what to expect next during his news conference following Wednesday’s Fed meeting.
The economy’s strength faces a key test next week, when the monthly US jobs report for July is released. Economic data is expected to be especially important for market sentiment in the next two months to give cues for the Fed’s next moves.
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