Businesses in Britain’s huge services sector reported a pickup this month, according to a survey that offered some comfort to finance minister Rachel Reeves ahead of a challenging speech on the economy and the public finances this week.
Yesterday’s preliminary reading of the UK S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the services sector hit a seven-month high of 53.2 in March, up from 51.0 in February.
But the smaller manufacturing PMI sank to an 18-month low of 44.6 from 46.9 in February, as worries about a global trade war ignited by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs hammered expectations for future output.
Manufacturing export sales suffered their biggest fall since August 2023.
The overall composite PMI – covering both sectors – rose to a six-month high of 52.0 from February’s 50.5.
S&P Global said the survey suggested Britain’s economy was on course to grow by a still marginal 0.1 per cent in the first three months of 2025.
Firms cut jobs again as they braced for April’s increase in a tax on employers and for the minimum wage to rise by almost 7pc next month too. Firms mentioned investment in automation as one of their responses to the hike.
However, the pace of staff reduction slowed noticeably from February.
“While we are reluctant to jump to that optimistic conclusion yet, the rise in the PMIs may perhaps speak to at least a bottoming out in sentiment,” said HSBC economist Elizabeth Martins.
She said April may prove to be a more difficult month for British businesses, with the enactment of US tariffs, sharp increases in the employers’ tax and the minimum wage, as well as energy price hikes, all due to take effect.
S&P Global said the improved January reading for the services sector was driven by “small pockets of growth” in financial services, with other businesses still struggling.
Reeves is expected to announce tomorrow a sharp downgrade to the UK’s economic growth this year which, along with higher borrowing costs, is likely to force her to cut her plans for spending increases in the coming years.
Monday’s PMI survey showed input costs paid by businesses rose at a slower pace this month. They increased the prices they charged at the same speed as in February, in part to offset the increase in employment costs from next month.
The Bank of England is watching closely for the impact of the increase in employers’ social security contributions which Reeves announced in her first budget last October. It warned last week that it might pause its pattern of cutting interest rates once every three months that has held since last October.
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