British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s much-lauded ‘one in, one out’ migrant return deal with French President Emmanuel Macron is a ‘publicity stunt’ that won’t win back voters, Britain’s leading pollsters have warned.
Professor John Curtice, Lord Robert Hayward and Luke Tryl have suggested that the small scale of the agreement, which will only see a tiny fraction of those arriving on small boats returned to France, will have little or no impact on the prime minister’s dwindling popularity because of record low trust in the government, according to Britain’s The Independent newspaper in an exclusive report.
The problem was underlined on Thursday when more than 700 migrants arrived on small boats just hours before the announcement of the deal, which will reportedly see only 50 returned a week, although ministers have refused to discuss specific numbers.
It comes as new polling reveals concerns about the government’s wider migration policy, with a survey of Labour party members, seen by The Independent, showing opposition to Starmer’s plans to crack down on legal migration as well.
According to a Survation poll of 1,304 Labour Party members for LabourList, 53 per cent oppose plans to allow migrants the right to apply for citizenship only after 10 years of being in the UK on a work visa, up from five years. Only 36pc support it.
The measure is a key part of bringing down legal migration, along with banning the overseas recruitment of care workers.
But it highlights splits within the Labour Party over the plans for both legal and illegal migration, with some on the left unhappy with the deal, which will see the UK accept the same number of asylum seekers with family or strong ties to the UK in return.
The focus on tackling both legal and illegal migration has been part of a strategy to tackle the loss of votes to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
The most recent Techne UK poll for The Independent put Reform up one point to 29pc, seven points ahead of Labour, who were down one on 22pc.
Reflecting on whether the migrants return policy will impress voters, Prof Curtice said: “I would be surprised if it were to have a ‘significant’ impact.”
Lord Hayward, a Tory peer and highly respected pollster, also called the announcement ‘a publicity stunt’, adding: “The deal will have no impact really. There are so many questions about the plan.”
He also noted that the real problem for Starmer and his government is a record-low level of confidence in the government.
“I think the figure for net confidence level may be at or on a par with the worst ever,” he added.
Only 23pc expressed confidence in Starmer’s government, according to the Techne UK poll, compared to 63pc not confident, giving an overall rating of -40.
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