Analysis of the Qatar Grand Prix, brought to you by Bahrain International Circuit
F1 – Coming into the Sunday race in Qatar, the maths for the championship was simple, as Lando Norris was the only driver who could win the championship at this round.
If he won the race, the championship was his.
If he finished in the top seven, but managed to beat both Piastri and Verstappen in the process, the championship was also his.
Failure to do that and in most scenarios the championship would roll on to the finale in Abu Dhabi.
Leaving aside the disqualification last time out in Las Vegas, recent momentum had been with Norris, certainly compared to his teammate, and the expectation was that the Lusail circuit was better suited to McLaren compared to Red Bull and the rest.
The balance within the McLaren team however, shifted somewhat in the early part of the weekend.
Piastri claimed pole in the sprint qualification, won the sprint race and took pole for the feature race.
Norris could only manage third in the sprint, but did line up alongside his teammate on the front row for the feature race.
Piastri looked much more comfortable on the high grip fast circuit than in recent races and with Norris having to worry about Verstappen just behind him at the start, it was set for a nervy start.
There was the added spice of the fact that overtaking is quite difficult in Qatar, so track position is at a huge premium.
Further, Pirelli had put a mandatory 25 lap maximum limit on tyres for safety reasons, which effectively forced everyone into a two-stop race.
Piastri got off to the perfect start whilst Verstappen made a better job off the line compared to Norris and pushed himself into second.
Just a few laps later, on lap seven, a Hulkenberg incident brought out a safety car, which would go on to change the complexion of the race.
With exactly 50 laps left, the option was there to stop, within the parameters of the 25 lap limit of tyre usage, for a two-stop strategy.
Every car came into the pits, with the notable exception of McLaren.
They felt that stopping would have left them with no flexibility on strategy for the rest of the race.
It was a bold move and only time would tell whether that would be the right decision.
After the safety car restart, Piastri and Norris were upfront having not stopped, followed by Verstappen, Sainz, Antonell and Alonso.
Piastri stopped for his first tyre change on lap 24, just a lap before his maximum, with Norris coming in the following lap.
They fed out just ahead of Alonso, in fourth and fifth place.
Piastri made progress by overtaking Antonelli on lap 30 going into turn 1, to move to third.
Then, as expected, on lap 32 all the drivers except for McLaren came into the pits for their second and final stop.
On lap 43, Piastri stopped for the second time, coming back out 17 seconds behind Verstappen.
Norris came in two laps later, but could only come out in fifth, behind Sainz and Antonelli.
So, for Piastri, it was a question of trying to get back to Verstappen on newer tyres.
Whilst for Norris, the aim was to try and get a podium over the remaining 12 laps.
Both drivers were struggling with these ambitions until Antonelli ran wide on the last lap allowing Norris into fourth.
Those extra two points for Norris could turn out to be crucial for him.
Whilst Piastri initially managed to claw some of the time back to Verstappen, he never really troubled the Dutchman upfront who went on for what turned out to be a straightforward, if not slightly fortuitous victory.
McLaren made a gamble to take the contrarian strategic decision and it didn’t pay off.
Piastri was almost certainly set for victory and Norris would have been a handful for Verstappen.
Elsewhere, Carlos Sainz held on for what will be a well-celebrated and popular third place podium.
Further back, the two Mercedes of Antonelli and Russell were fifth and sixth, followed by Alonso, Leclerc, Lawson and Tsunoda who completed the top 10.
Given that result, we now head into the season finale with Lando Norris 12 points ahead of Verstappen who is now in second place.
Oscar Piastri sits four points further back.
That means that a third-place finish for Norris will guarantee him the championship, irrespective of what happens elsewhere.
Verstappen can take the crown with a victory if Norris is fourth or worse.
Piastri will need a victory and hope that Norris finishes sixth or worse.
There are many other permutations should one of these three not win.
What this means for fans is the prospect of an epic finale for the last race of the season.
The last time that there were three drivers with a chance of taking the crown was back in 2010.
It’s therefore a rare treat to find ourselves in this situation, so one that no motorsport fan will want to miss.
Whatever happens, history will be made and a new champion crowned.
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