The United States and Israel pounded Iran yesterday with what the Pentagon and Iranians on the ground called the most intense air strikes of the war, despite global markets betting that President Donald Trump will seek to end the conflict soon.
Raising the stakes for the global economy, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they would block oil shipments from the Gulf unless US and Israeli attacks cease.
But the White House reiterated Trump’s threat to hit Iran hard if it tries to stop the flow of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, where the war has effectively halted one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, and repeated his offer for the US Navy to safely escort tankers.
“Today will be yet again, our most intense day of strikes inside Iran: the most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes, intelligence more refined and better than ever,” US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth told a Pentagon briefing.
Tehran residents reached by Reuters described the war’s most intense night of bombardment.
“It was like hell. They were bombing everywhere, every part of Tehran,” a resident said by phone. “My children are afraid to sleep now.”
In Tehran’s east, two five-storey residential buildings had been hit on Monday, blasting out floors and walls and leaving a rickety concrete frame. Footage from Iran’s Red Crescent showed rescuers there carrying a victim in a body bag. Workers were still recovering bodies at the site yesterday when a missile struck a road intersection nearby.
Yet with Trump having described the war on Monday as “very complete, pretty much”, investors appeared convinced he would end it soon – before the disruption to global energy supplies caused a worldwide economic meltdown.
An historic surge in crude oil prices on Monday was mostly reversed within a day. Asian and European share prices staged a partial recovery from earlier precipitous falls, and Wall Street bounced to around its levels of late February, before the war.
White House Press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters yesterday that the American public will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly once the objectives of the joint Israeli-US air war are fully achieved.
A source familiar with Israel’s war plans told Reuters the Israeli military wanted to inflict as much damage as possible before the window for further strikes closes, under the assumption Trump could end the war at any time.
Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Saar, said his country was not planning for an endless war and was consulting with Washington about when to stop it.
Iran has refused to bow to Trump’s demand that it let the US choose its new leadership, naming hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader to replace his father, who was killed on the war’s first day.
But occasionally contradictory remarks from Trump at a Monday Press conference appeared to reassure markets he would stop his war before provoking an economic crisis like those that followed the Middle East oil shocks of the 1970s. He said the US had already inflicted serious damage and predicted the conflict would end before the four weeks he initially set out.
Trump has not defined what victory would look like, but on Monday did not repeat declarations that Iran must let him choose its leader.
Several congressional aides have said they expect the White House to soon request as much as $50 billion in additional funding for the war.
The US used $5.6bn in munitions in the first two days of strikes against Iran, a source familiar with the information said.
“There is a big question mark over how long people can put up with the costs of this conflict,” said Clionadh Raleigh, CEO of US crisis-monitoring group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, or ACLED.
Several senior Iranian officials voiced defiance yesterday.
“Certainly, we are not seeking a ceasefire; we believe the aggressor must be struck in the mouth so that they learn a lesson and never again think of attacking dear Iran,” Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, posted on X.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told PBS that Tehran was unlikely to resume negotiations with the US.
With energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz halted, some of the world’s biggest producers have run out of storage and cut back output.
After Iran chose its hardline new leader, oil prices briefly surged to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday. But by 1500 GMT yesterday, Brent crude had settled back down below $90.
Ending the war quickly would appear to preclude toppling Iran’s leadership, which held large-scale rallies on Monday in support of the new supreme leader.
Many Iranians want change and some openly celebrated the death of the elder Khamenei, weeks after his security forces killed thousands of people to put down anti-government protests. But there has been little sign of protest during the war.
At least 1,270 people have been killed since the US and Israeli airstrikes began on February 28, according to Iranian state media reports.
Scores have also been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon to root out the Iran-backed group Hizbollah, which has fired into Israel in solidarity with Iran. Iran said four of its diplomats were killed in a strike on a hotel in Lebanon on Sunday.
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