London: Investors and gamblers put their money on Britain remaining a part of the European Union as a historic referendum yesterday threatened to undermine the experiment in continental unity launched from the ashes of the Second World War.
More than 46 million people were registered to vote, answering a seemingly simple question: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave?” The heated campaign saw the nation take stock of its place in the modern world and question its future direction.
“The future will be completely different, depending on the result,” said photographer Antony Crolla, 49, outside a London polling station. “I think it is going to be really close.”
“Leave” campaigners claimed that only a British exit can restore power to parliament and control immigration. The “remain” campaign, led by Prime Minister David Cameron, argued that Britain is safer and richer inside the 28-nation EU.
Financial markets have been volatile ahead of the vote, with currency traders predicting mayhem and a plunging pound in the event of a British exit.
Opinion polls suggested a tight race. But the pound surged yesterday as market speculation grew that voters would choose to stay in the EU. It rose to about $1.49, its highest level this year. Britain’s benchmark stock index was up 1.2 per cent, adding to big gains earlier in the week. Other European stock markets were up almost 2pc.
Bookies also clearly saw momentum for the “remain” camp. Betting market Betfair said the probability that the country would stay stood at 86pc. William Hill revised the chances of a “leave” vote from 25pc to just under 17pc.
“Markets seem to be taking a very big bet that the bookmakers are right – that there is a minimal chance of a Brexit,” said Michael Ingram, Market Strategist for BGC Brokers.
Turnout was considered critical to the outcome, as polling suggested a large number of undecided voters. A big turnout was expected to favour the “remain” campaign, as those who waver at the end tend to go for the status quo. Those favouring “leave” also tend to be more committed.
“It’s all about turnout and those soft ‘remainers’ staying at home,” UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage said outside his home. “I do think that the people who have decided to vote ‘leave’ have a real conviction and passion.”
Affecting that turnout were torrential rains, especially in the “remain” stronghold of London. London’s Fire Brigade took 550 weather-related calls as the capital was hit by heavy rain, thunderstorms and lightning strikes. Some polling stations were forced to close because of flooding.
Among those braving the London rain were devoted “leave” voters Susanne and Charles Humphrey. The retired couple paused after voting in a community centre and said it meant a lot to them to make their feelings known.
“We have taken it very seriously,” Susanne Humphrey said. “And we have prayed.”
An opinion poll released yesterday suggested the “remain” camp would win by a narrow margin. The poll of 1,592 people was conducted by the Ipsos MORI firm.
“It’s perfectly possible that (much of) England will vote to leave, but London as the capital city, and Scotland and Northern Ireland will all vote to remain and outweigh ultimately the view of the English as a whole,” said Ben Page, chief executive of the market research firm.
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