THE Middle East will face its worst food security crisis and decrease in rainfall by 2040, according to a new research released yesterday.
The research, entitled “Water dilemmas: The cascading impacts of water insecurity in a heating world”, was commissioned by the charity Oxfam, a global movement of people working to end poverty.
The study presents findings on climate predictions for 2040 and 2050 in the Middle East, the Horn, East and Central Africa (HECA), West Africa and Asia regions.
Analyses show how temperature increases will influence water insecurity in these regions and the potential impacts on food security, spread of diseases, hunger and other factors.
The countries covered in the Middle East include Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Yemen.
“Across the Middle East region by 2040, rainfall will decrease markedly instead, as will water levels and river runoff, sparking worsening food security,” stated the report.
“Heat waves will rise by 16 per cent leading to a drop in labour productivity of 7pc, with water prices rising with the demand.”
The research states that temperatures will increase by 2040 in all regions: 1C in Asia; by 1.4C in HECA and in West Africa; and the highest, by 2C, in the Middle East.
“While more precipitation may seem like good news for water availability, the research shows that it will instead result in more surface runoff in many areas,” according to the report.
“Without significant investment in infrastructure to manage it, it will lead to less clean water, and wash away crucial topsoil.”
Surface runoff is the flow of water that occurs when excess water (such as from rainfall) can no longer be absorbed by the soil.
Surface runoff and river discharge will increase significantly in Asia, HECA and West Africa (while decreasing in the Middle East).
“In all regions, the population at risk of heat waves also increases by 13.19 percentage points (pp) for HECA, 7.95pp in Asia, 12pp in the Middle East and 6.35pp in West Africa,” said the findings.
“This is likely to have a range of significant impacts on human life and well-being in these regions, including limiting people’s ability to work outdoors.
“In addition to diminished labour productivity, this will also have disproportionate impacts on women, with higher heat stress on pregnant women and those working outdoors, such as in agricultural labour.”
Another warning is the population in the Middle East at risk of mosquito-borne diseases that is projected to increase by 37 million by 2050.
Cases of Leishmaniasis (transmitted by sandflies ) and Schistosomiasis (commonly known as bilharzia and caused by a parasitic worm living in freshwater) will also increase in the Middle East region.
Oxfam Global Climate Justice Lead Nafkote Dabi said while global warming is being caused by oil, coal and gas, its harm is fundamentally being experienced as a global water crisis.
“The worst scenarios that the world needed to avoid have already begun,”said Ms Dabi.
“Under today’s emissions trajectories, billions of people face no safe future in the worsening water crisis, happening under such political nonchalance.
“Rich polluting nations must immediately and drastically cut their emissions, and fund water infrastructure in poor communities.”
The report calls out for urgent action to increase investments in sustainable, climate-adapted water management for the people who are most at risk from the worsening climate crisis.
Oxfam calculates that in 10 of the world’s worst climate hotspots, chronic hunger is projected to rise by a third in 2050 as a result of climate change – that is 11.3 million more people going hungry than without climate change – a landslide derailing of the UN’s “zero hunger” target.
Earlier this week, the World Meteorological Organisation in its latest report said extreme weather is the “new norm”.
The GDN reported recently that electricity consumption reached 3,819 megawatts on August 13 as the temperature hit 44C with a humidity of 60.5pc.
Another record was set on August 3 when the highest electricity consumption in its history reached 3,798MW.
The highest electricity consumption last year was 3,708MW on August 18.
This is at a time when the kingdom’s power network is stable and operating with high efficiency.
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