OIL and gas prices surged yesterday as Israeli and US strikes on Iran and retaliation by Tehran forced shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East and disrupted shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
A sustained rise in oil prices would endanger a global economic recovery and fuel inflation and could push up US retail gasoline prices, a risk for US President Donald Trump and his Republican Party ahead of midterm elections this November.
Brent crude futures rose as much as 13 per cent to $82.37 a barrel, their highest since January 2025, before retreating to trade up $4.92, or 6.75pc, at $77.79 a barrel by yesterday evening. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $3.87, or 5.77pc, at $70.89, having risen more than 12pc to $75.33, its highest since June.
“While we do not know where these disruptions will end or how the conflict will ultimately resolve, the near-term result is likely to be heightened volatility in global energy markets and a potential rerouting of global oil and gas cargoes,” said Kenny Zhu, research analyst at Global X.
He said the North American energy complex was well positioned to hedge these disruptions should there be any lasting impacts on global energy trade, however.
Oil’s surge on the restart of trading after the weekend was smaller than some had expected. On Sunday, some analysts had predicted oil would open above $90 a barrel and closer to $100.
Yesterday, Saudi Arabia shut its biggest domestic oil refinery after a drone strike. Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas and state-owned QatarEnergy was set to declare force majeure on LNG shipments. The widening Iran conflict also left 150 ships stranded at anchor around the Strait of Hormuz after a seafarer was killed and at least three tankers were damaged.
Much of the crude oil from some of the world’s largest producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran, is shipped through the Strait, making it one of the world’s most important oil choke points.
“While there is some overland access for crude oil out of the region, it is nowhere near sufficient to replace flows through the Strait,” Morningstar analysts said in a note. On a typical day, ships carrying crude oil equal to about one-fifth of global demand sail through the Strait along with tankers hauling diesel, petrol and other fuels to major Asian markets including China and India. The waterway is also the conduit for about 20pc of the world’s liquefied natural gas. The Dutch front-month contract at the TTF natural gas hub, the benchmark European price, was up more than 40pc at 45.38 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) on the Intercontinental Exchange.
Asian LNG prices jumped almost 39pc yesterday with the S&P Global Energy Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM), widely used as an Asian LNG benchmark, at $15.068 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), Platts data showed.
Oil pared gains after its steep surge in early Asian trade, a move that analysts attributed to buyers having already factored a risk premium into prices in anticipation of the conflict. In the view of the International Energy Agency and other analysts, the market is well supplied, with extra output from producers such as the United States, Guyana and Opec+ expected to outpace global demand this year.
Despite the fears of a glut, at Friday’s close, Brent was up more than 19pc this year, while WTI was trading about 17pc higher.
“Markets are acknowledging the seriousness of the conflict, but are also signalling that, for now, this is a geopolitical shock, not a systemic crisis,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova.
Opec+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil output by 206,000 barrels per day in April. Every Opec+ producer is essentially producing at capacity except for Saudi Arabia, RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said.
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