The GCC countries and their citizens and expatriate are more united, closer and stronger than ever before as they deal with unprecedented Iranian aggression, according to an expert in the world of diplomacy.
The US-Iran-Israel conflict, which enters Day 17 today, has caused economic damage to all six Gulf States but has not provoked retaliation or deterred Bahrain and its neighbours from repeated calls for de-escalation and dialogue.
“Bahrain’s restraint has been wise and disciplined,” Italy-based think tank Euro-Gulf Information Centre’s director Matthew Robinson told the GDN. “It has defended the island, prevented panic and refused Tehran the political dividend of inciting a knee-jerk reaction.
“The kingdom has projected a sense of seriousness and resolve.”
Mr Robinson added that Tehran’s strategy ‘aims to fray the emotional fabric of society’ but in Bahrain it is just as likely to ‘deepen public anger, social solidarity and rejection of Iranian coercion’.
The socio-political, strategic, cultural and economic analysist, who served as the British Conservative Party chairman in Northern Ireland from 2021 to 2023, said Bahrain is stoically confronting what he described as ‘double burden.’
“First and foremost is, the safety of its civilians, all while maintaining operations of key services, finance, refining and maritime activities, all of which are being stretched to their limits,” he added.
“The broader threat, and added complication, is that Iran’s proxy ecosystem can ramp up the threats with intimidation, sabotage and deniable violence beyond the chaos of drones and missiles,” he warned.
Since the outbreak of the conflict, the Interior Ministry has announced the arrests of several individuals for misusing social media, using artificial intelligence to post fake news and for alleged espionage.
The expert added that Iran’s strategy is self-defeating, by going after the Gulf states that host US assets.
“I think it does not threaten the Gulf but further solidifies Gulf opinion against Iran while destroying whatever little trust there was,” he suggested.
“Each such strike against a base based in Bahrain, Qatar, or others, it is simply a strike against their people and sovereignty.”
Mr Robinson said, according to his assessment, Bahrain, on its size alone, was clearly one of the hardest hit by Iranian drones and ballistic missiles.
“For a small island with a relatively small population, that is not just a military statistic but a societal shock,” he added. “The feeling of vulnerability can spread rapidly, from homes and schools to workplaces and the national mood.”
Mr Robinson said the conflict is no longer a contained US-Iran-Israel one as Tehran has deliberately pulled all six Gulf countries in as collateral damage.
“It is the GCC that is paying a heavy price for the barbaric actions of the Islamic Republic, both in terms of lives and livelihoods,” he added.
“Nonetheless, Iran’s attempt to divide and disrupt the Gulf family has had the opposite effect, at least diplomatically, this war has drawn the six countries closer than they’ve been in some time.”
The latest update by the Bahrain Defence Force General Command has so far intercepted more than 125 missiles and 200 one-way attack drones since the onset of the hostilities.
Two people have been killed in the kingdom, Bangladeshi ship worker Abul Mohsin Tareq in a port on March 2 and a young Bahraini Sara Dashti who was enjoying an evening out in the Seef District on March 10.
Iran has further targeted Bahrain’s energy facilities, a fuel tanker storage in Muharraq and the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Juffair.
Mr Robinson added that the economic impact extends well beyond the cost of destroyed buildings and infrastructure.
“Soaring insurance premiums, interruption to aviation and shipping, refineries coming offline, and pressure on desalination and energy systems all have a weighing cost,” he added.
He also urges the Gulf countries to continue working towards de-escalating the conflict with a posture of strength, not weakness.
“Strengthen integration of air and missile defence, fortify energy and water infrastructure, and speak with one collective GCC voice,” said Mr Robinson.
“Defensive strength, diplomatic discipline and zero rewards for Iranian coercion is the correct recipe,” he added.
More than 50,000 service members are supporting the US-led Operation Epic Fury, which started on February 28, said Pentagon Press Secretary Kingsley Wilson last week.
Mr Robinson stressed in the aftermath of the war, GCC-US relations should prioritise at-pace greater integration of defence, including intercept capabilities, and clear deterrent guarantees.
“If the Islamic Republic regime survives, we can expect GCC-Iran relations to be far colder and deeply mistrustful for years to come, as Tehran has once again reminded the region that it views its neighbours as expendable pressure points,” he added.
Tehran’s ability to halt shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes, poses a difficult problem for the US and its allies as global energy prices continue to soar due to the disruptions.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaced his slain father, has said the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed.
Across the region, airspace closures have resulted in airlines cancelling some 40,000 flights, the largest disruption to global air travel since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Gulf tourism meanwhile is also taking a hit, putting at risk the region’s carefully crafted image as a safe and high-end vacation hotspot.
The highly-anticipated Formula One Grand Prix that was scheduled to be held next month in Bahrain has also been cancelled alongside the race in Saudi Arabia, the F1 and the International Automobile Federation (FIA).
The decision was taken after careful evaluations, due to the ongoing situation in the Middle East region.
Bahrain cut all diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016, citing Tehran’s interference in its domestic affairs. The move came after demonstrators stormed and set fire to the Saudi Embassy in Tehran.
However, in the past two years, officials from Manama and Tehran had held bilateral meetings.
But talk is cheap if in the next breath you are sending missiles and drones across the Arabian Gulf. Whatever happens next is anyone’s guess.
sandy@gdnmedia.bh
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