The United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran’s vast missile arsenal as the US and Israeli war on the country nears its one-month mark, according to five people familiar with the US intelligence.
The status of around another third is less clear but bombings likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers, four of the sources said.
The sources spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitive nature of the information.
One of the sources said the intelligence was similar for Iran’s drone capability, saying there was some degree of certainty about a third having been destroyed.
The assessment, which has not been previously reported, shows that while most of Iran’s missiles are either destroyed or inaccessible, Tehran still has a significant missile inventory and may be able to recover some buried or damaged missiles once fighting stops.
The intelligence stands in contrast to President Donald Trump’s public remarks on Thursday that Iran had “very few rockets left”.
He also appeared to acknowledge the threat from remaining Iranian missiles and drones to any future US operations to safeguard the economically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters first reported that he is weighing whether to escalate the conflict by deploying US troops to Iranian shores along the Strait.
“The problem with the Straits is this: let’s say we do a great job. We say we got 99 per cent (of their missiles). 1pc is unacceptable, because 1pc is a missile going into the hull of a ship that cost a billion dollars,” Trump said at a televised Cabinet meeting on Thursday.
Asked for comment, a Pentagon official said Iranian missile and drone attacks were down by about 90pc since the start of the war.
The US military’s Central Command “has also damaged or destroyed over 66pc of Iranian missile, drone, and naval production facilities and shipyards,” the official added.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Democratic Rep Seth Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran who served four tours in Iraq, declined to comment on Reuters’ findings but he disputed Trump’s claims about the impact of the war on Iran’s arsenal.
“If Iran is smart they’ve retained some of their capability – they’re not using everything that they have. And they’re laying in wait,” Moulton said.
The Trump administration has said it aims to weaken Iran’s military by sinking its navy, destroying its missile and drone capability and ensuring that the Islamic Republic never has a nuclear weapon.
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