THE number of Indians migrating to the GCC has registered a steady decline in the past few years, it has emerged.
Experts attributed this trend to an improving Indian economy and a nationalisation drive in the GCC.
According to official statistics, more than 3.1 million Indians travelled to the Gulf countries in 2016, which dropped to around 2.6m in 2017, 1.9m in 2018, 1.6m in 2019 and just 377,039 in 2020, and 165,177 until June this year.
The figures were revealed in Indian Parliament by Minister of State for External Affairs V Muraleedharan.
Bahrain Centre for Strategic, International and Energy Studies (Derasat) research director Dr Omar Al Ubaidly said a rebounding Indian economy and a GCC nationalisation drive has led to a drop in the number of Indians chasing the “Gulf dream”.
“In the 40-year period from 1980-2019, India’s per capita income decreased once, while it grew for 39 years, reflecting the continual improvement in economic opportunities,” he told the GDN.
“Specific decline of the GCC numbers can be largely attributed to efforts at nationalising jobs in the GCC.
“Many white-collar jobs in which Indians traditionally excel, such as accounting and administration, have been gradually reserved for GCC citizens in an effort to create jobs for citizens, diminishing the opportunities for Indians to perform these roles.”
Dr Al Ubaidly was optimistic that “all sides” would benefit in this scenario – with India retaining its talents and skills and the GCC trying to reduce its dependence on expats.
Dr Al Ubaidly
“Expats have always enriched the GCC economically and culturally, and India has been an important part of that, as can be seen in Bahrain’s cuisine and local dialect.
“However, India has ambitions to become an economic powerhouse, and it can only do that if it retains its top talent; while the GCC countries want to decrease their dependence on expat labour.
“In the long run, all sides can benefit.”
From the economy point of view, he acknowledged the drop could reflect painfully on remittances.
However, he added that it was natural for any country which is ambitious to be a leading economic player, to be going through the process of “retaining more of its talent, and relying less on remittances”.
Former International Institute of Strategic Studies geo-economics and strategy director Dr Sanjaya Baru said the decline was anticipated.
Dr Baru
“India has been expecting this decline in numbers given that the GCC economies have been slowing down and these countries are adopting pro-locals policy to boost employment of citizens.
“(Also) GCC have been diversifying expatriate labour by allowing more from other countries.”
The adviser to former Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh said that the current Indian government could re-consider its policies along with the GCC to address factors contributing to the decline.
Close to four million Indians went for overseas jobs in 2016, which declined to just over 2.5m in 2019, and this further dropped to just over 700,000 last year. Until June 3 this year, 11,190 Indians went abroad for employment.
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