THE GCC region is hedging its bets with the US by developing a multi-layered relationship with China, although most countries in the region still have a preference for the Western superpower, delegates at a top security and defence forum heard yesterday.
During the concluding plenary session of the IISS Manama Dialogue 2023, titled ‘The Future Middle East’, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) analysts offered insights on geo-political dynamics and ambitions, with China identified as a “fundamental” part of the region’s landscape.
According to IISS Middle East research fellow for Middle East policy Dr Hasan Alhasan, the relationship between the Gulf and China rests on the economic partnership around trade and energy.
“China is the largest trading partner and largest energy market for almost all of the Gulf states,” he added.
As an example, he cited Oman, which exports 90 per cent of its oil to China.
On top of that is the investment layer, where China has used the digital Silk Road Initiative to build partnerships with Israel and the UAE while using the Belt and Road Initiative to build a “massive footprint in the Iraq energy and oil sector”.
In addition, Dr Alhasan pointed to the political and diplomatic layer, where China has facilitated the de-escalation of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
He also went on to acknowledge the military layer, which has raised concerns amongst US intelligence as the Asian superpower conducts joint exercises with the UAE.
“Despite all of these multi-layered facets of the China-Gulf relationships, regional states still see and have a preference for the US as their security and military partner,” he added.
IISS consultant research fellow for European Foreign Policy and Security Rym Momtaz noted that, as opposed to underestimating the region’s shift to the East, EU, Nato and US have been “kind of obsessed” with the shift.
“In Europe, you hear a lot of talk about what is the Global South thinking and how are they looking at China?” she added.
Ms Momtaz suggested that while the US is comfortable with “muscular diplomacy”, the European countries need to “get out of their enchanted bubble and get back into the real world” and reinvest in deterrence in the region, in order to balance the power dynamics in the region.
The session was moderated by IISS director-general and chief executive Dr Bastian Giegerich and also featured insights by regional security director and senior fellow for Middle East Security Emile Hokayem and senior adviser for geopolitical due diligence John Raine.
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