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China’s export growth slowed to a six-month low in August as a brief boost from a tariff truce with the US faded, but demand elsewhere provided officials some relief as they try to underpin an economy facing low domestic consumption and external risks.
Authorities are counting on manufacturers to diversify into other markets in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policy, enabling them to hit Beijing’s annual growth target of ‘around 5 per cent’ without rushing to offer additional near-term fiscal support.
Outbound shipments from China rose 4.4pc year-on-year in August, customs data showed yesterday, missing a forecast 5pc increase in a Reuters poll and marking the slowest growth in six months. They compared with July’s better-than-expected 7.2pc increase.
Imports grew 1.3pc, following 4.1pc growth a month earlier. Economists had predicted a 3.0pc rise.
The slowdown in headline export growth was affected by a high base of comparison, but last August’s figure was also distorted by manufacturers rushing to beat tariffs from a number of trading partners.
“I would say the number is still decent, and the resilience of exports has certainly lasted longer than we had expected,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“The prospect of a fiscal stimulus is definitely quite dim. China still has a number of economic tools such as policy bank credit and monetary easing, which may be enough to help it reach 5pc,” he added.
China’s exports to the US fell 33.12pc year-on-year in August, the customs data showed, while its shipments to Southeast Asian nations rose 22.5pc in the same period.
Chinese producers are trying to export more to markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America to offset the impact of Trump’s tariffs, but no other country comes even close to US consumption power, which once absorbed over $400 billion of Chinese goods annually.
And with Trump in July threatening a 40pc penalty tariff on goods deemed to be transshipped from China to the US to evade his earlier levies, how long Chinese factory owners can continue to find American buyers that way remains to be seen.
But policymakers are loathe to implement painful but much-needed economic reforms for a durable pick-up in domestic consumption under external pressure, analysts say.
“The [import data] breakdown showed a pickup in energy shipments, but this was more than offset by declines in chip and industrial metal imports, with the latter likely reflecting the continued slowdown in construction activity,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.
A protracted slump in the property sector, a key store of household wealth, is squeezing consumer spending. Depleted land-sale revenue is also limiting local authorities’ ability to back Beijing’s drive to revive demand through subsidies such as job-creation schemes.
Beijing also seems to be exercising tighter control over its flagship ‘cash-for-clunkers’ programme and did not rush to replenish funds after several local governments recently ran through the allocation set aside for the scheme.
But that puts a lot of pressure on Chinese exporters.
China’s August trade surplus came in at $102.3bn, from $98.24bn in July, but still well below June’s $114.8bn.
Beijing and Washington agreed on August 11 to extend their tariff truce for another 90 days, locking in place US levies of 30pc on Chinese imports and 10pc Chinese duties on US goods, but appear to be struggling to chart a path beyond the current pause.
Once Trump’s tariffs top 35pc, they become prohibitively high for Chinese exporters, economists warn.
China’s soybean imports rose to their highest-ever level for the month of August, as buyers snapped up large volumes from South America and continued to hold off booking US soybeans – leaving American exporters at risk of missing out on billions of dollars in sales as trade talks drag on.
Iron ore imports in August stayed high as mills prepared for the peak steel demand period in September, which policymakers will be hoping sees an uptick in construction activity off the back of better weather.
But with no end to the property downturn in sight and structural reforms slow to come by, officials are likely to be focussed on one preferred option – negotiating a resolution to the trade war with the Trump administration while expanding China’s commercial footprint elsewhere.
“Exports are holding up well so far,” said Dan Wang, director for China at Eurasia Group.
“Shipments to the US are down, but other routes are even better than last year. Lots of exports are also tied to Chinese factories going overseas and importing raw materials and other inputs from China,” she added.
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