What to do or say about Israel’s war on Gaza has establishment Democratic consultants and the elected officials for whom they work in a tizzy.
One recent news account reported that Senate and House Democratic leaders are worried about the “Mamdani effect” – that a Zohran Mamdani win in the 2025 New York City mayor’s race will scare away “moderate” voters from Democratic candidates in 2026.
Additionally, a slew of commentaries have cautioned Democratic candidates against embracing “progressive” policies, urging more centrist positions.
While other issues factor into this concern, Mamdani’s and other progressives’ criticism of Israel and support for Palestinians top the list of positions establishment Democrats view as too radical for voters.
During the recent Democratic National Committee debate over a resolution criticising Israel and calling for an end to US arms supplies to that country, the consultant groups’ major argument was that the resolution’s passage would damage the prospects of Democrats’ winning control of Congress in 2026.
Similarly, articles have suggested that “leftist” Democrats are pushing to make Israel’s war against Palestinians a “litmus test” for 2026 candidates.
These report on a few Democratic elected officials or leading 2026 candidates who, in recent weeks, have felt forced to retract comments supportive of Israel in the face of voter backlash.
The consultants and Democratic Party congressional leaders are wrong.
It’s not some insidious leftist conspiracy that has caused candidates to change their views.
Rather the mood of voters has changed, and candidates with their finger on the pulse of the electorate know they must change too.
We’ve seen recent polls showing dramatic shifts in voter sympathy for Palestinians over Israelis and support for stopping military supplies to Israel.
To learn how these shifts might translate into voter behaviour, the Arab American Institute commissioned John Zogby Strategies to conduct a nationwide poll of 1,005 voters.
The poll didn’t ask about respondents’ support for Israel, its policies or US support for Israel.
Instead, voters were given a number of positions that might be taken by a candidate and asked whether, given that position, they were more or less likely to support that candidate.
The questions asked included the following:
1. Would you be more or less likely to support a candidate if they were in favour of reducing or ending military aid to Israel?
2. Would you be more or less likely to support a candidate if they spoke out to stop Israel’s war on Gaza?
3. Would you be more or less likely to support a candidate if they spoke about what Israel is doing in Gaza as a genocide?
4. Would you be more or less likely to support a candidate if they received support from a pro-Israel lobbying group, such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)?
In response to questions 1, 2, and 3, a plurality of all voters would be more inclined to support the candidate who took these positions.
A plurality would be less inclined to support candidates who received funding from AIPAC.
There’s an expected partisan split, with Democrats more likely to support candidates critical of Israeli policy.
The one exception is in response to stopping the war – where Democrats and Republicans agree.
Among respondents, a greater percentage called themselves conservative (39 per cent) than liberal (26pc); moderates were the second largest group (34pc).
While the views of liberals and conservatives were at times mirror-images, the degree to which, on these issues, the attitudes of liberals and moderates were largely the same was striking.
Sixty per cent of liberals and moderates were more likely to support candidates who seek to stop Israel’s war on Gaza while only 10pc would be less likely. Among conservatives, attitudes are evenly divided.
Results were similar with regard to decreasing military aid to Israel and calling Israel’s policies in Gaza genocide.
The bottom line is that Democratic consultants trying to steer candidates to “safe centrist ground” by appealing to “moderates” only demonstrate how out of touch they are with the electorate.
The Democratic establishment should stop fretting about candidates losing this election for taking positions critical of Israel and supportive of Palestinian rights.
Instead, they should encourage them to do so. It’s where the majority of voters are – liberals and moderates included.
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