ONGOING ‘low-level’ confrontations could continue in the region as US-Iran tensions escalate, warned security experts.
They also cautioned against conventional military warfare, but said the region was already on a path to war from a cyber aspect and in terms of “maximum economic pressures” on Tehran.
Assessing the situation and its impact on Gulf states, international and regional analysts echoed similar views to the GDN on the fact that the region could not afford war, but that an ongoing ‘low-level’ confrontation could not be ruled out.
Tensions between Iran and the US and its allies have risen sharply since Washington stepped up economic sanctions against Tehran and moved to bring the country’s oil exports to zero as part of a “maximum pressure” policy to force Iran to halt actions that “undermined regional security”.
In the latest incident signifying an escalation of threatening actions in the region, the UK government said on Thursday that three Iranian boats had attempted to “impede the passage” of a British oil tanker as it was moving out of Gulf waters into the Strait of Hormuz, forcing UK warship HMS Montrose to intervene.
Last month, Iran also shot down a US drone near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US President Donald Trump to order and later call off a retaliatory air strike.
Washington-based think tank Gulf State Analytics (GSA) founder and chief executive Giorgio Cafiero explained that each member of the GCC had its unique perspective on the US campaign of “maximum pressure”.
“Generally, Abu Dhabi, Manama and Riyadh have been very supportive of the Trump administration’s hardline stance against Tehran,” he said.
“Yet Doha, Kuwait City and Muscat have major problems with Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’, fearing the potential for such tension to boil over into a military conflict whereby the Arabian Gulf monarchies could easily be the first to suffer from any retaliatory response that comes from the Iranian regime.”
He also stressed that a conflict in the Arabian Gulf would severely threaten the security of all GCC countries, including Bahrain, adding that the last thing the Middle East needed was a new regional war.
Being home to the US Navy Fifth Fleet, Bahrain could be seen as a potential target for Iran if tensions escalate into a conventional warfare scenario, according to GSA senior analyst Dr Theodore Karasik.
However, he said that such a “brazen move” would destroy Tehran’s stance in the region.
He also pointed out that tensions with Iran were a repetition of the period leading to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, which Tehran signed with six world powers in 2015.
In May this year, President Trump pulled Washington out of the JCPOA, despite objections from other parties, and increased economic sanctions, with Tehran responding earlier this week by starting to breach limits put on its nuclear activities.
“At the time (of the JCPOA) the scenario showed that Iranian missiles were capable but not 100 per cent,” he said.
“That assessment has now changed as Iran’s capabilities are improving and we see that in their asymmetrical use of missiles and drones.
“For Bahrain this means that Iran obviously can target the country because of the maritime aspect of the US Fifth Fleet, but such an attack would be so brazen that the response would leave Iran in the Stone Age.
“Thus said, if Iran is indeed going to target Bahrain, it will continue to do so in its traditional manner.”
In a recent heated exchange of words with the Trump administration, IRGC commander Hossein Nejat claimed that American bases were “within the range of our missiles”, according to reports.
Dr Karasik predicted that such verbal confrontations, threatening actions and cyber attacks would continue for a while as Iran, the US and the international community attempt to control the situation and de-escalate tensions.
“If the region moves into a war, which I argue has already started because of the cyber aspect as well as the maximum extreme pressure on Iran’s economic holdings, there is the potential for a limited exchange of conventional weaponry that then would force a walk back,” he said.
“We need to recognise that the drone that was thrown up at the Iranian border and then shot down actually was a tease to light up Iran command and control during the shoot down.
“The result was a cyber strike by the US. This type of activity may continue and this is a low level of a confrontation that is ongoing.
“Because of many different drivers, including how the Gulf states want Iran to get a bloody nose, this confrontation is likely to continue for a while.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s continuous threats have been described as part of the IRGC’s propaganda warfare aiming to destabilise the region, according to Bahrain Centre for Strategic, International and Energy Studies (Derasat) analyst Mahmood Abdul Ghaffar.
“In the past, Iran threatened to use its ballistic missile to strike various Gulf and US targets throughout the region,” he said.
“These threats are part of the IRGC propaganda warfare which aims to destabilise the region and ‘rally the flag’ within Iran.
“It is important to know that the GCC and its international allies have been conducting joint military drills to simulate various forms of Iranian attack for decades.
“However, Iran is well aware of the consequences if it ever decided to act upon their threats.”
He also underlined that war was “never a solution”, stressing that regional players and the international community must co-operate to de-escalate tensions.
raji@gdn.com.bh
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