A special UN session promoting a two-state solution to the Israel/Palestine conflict scheduled for last week was postponed by Israel’s attack on Iran and the deadly exchanges that followed. Meanwhile, the situation in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem only worsens, compounded by most nations’ feckless response. Instead of definitively condemning the genocide and occupation, hollow and banal pronouncements urge negotiation or profess support for a (now-impossible) two-state solution.
Proposed “peace plans” call for international peacekeepers, a “reformed Palestinian Authority” and Hamas’ disarming, but ignore important realities: Israel’s rejection of every plan forwarded to date, and the entrenched Israeli occupation’s distortion of realities in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, complicating any path toward Palestinian independence.
To assess Palestinian attitudes toward their current situation and their hopes for the future, my company has conducted annual polls in the occupied lands. These surveys clearly show distinctly different opinions among respondents in each area – toward their governance, threats they face, and hopes for the future – because of the unique burdensome conditions Israel has imposed on them.
For two decades, Gaza was severed from the rest of the Palestinian population and economically strangled by Israel, with Hamas being punished and then rewarded by an Israeli government seeking to foster Palestinian division, enabling Hamas to grow stronger.
Our findings quantify the devastating consequences of Israel’s war on Gaza for Palestinians. Almost two-thirds report evacuating their families four or more times in the first 18 months. Most have lost family members. Seventy per cent of homes have been totally destroyed, with majorities reporting extreme scarcity of food, water, medical services and adequate shelter.
The three-decades-long enforced closure of East Jerusalem severed the city’s Palestinians from their compatriots. Before closure, West Bank Palestinians came to Jerusalem for employment and services. After closure, Palestinians in East Jerusalem lost their customers, clients and income, and were forced to turn to the Israeli economy. Since October 7, majorities report heightened levels of economic and political distress.
Economic insecurity also grew in the West Bank. Because Israeli policies retarded independent economic development, the largest employers of West Bank Palestinians became day-labourer permits for Israel or Israeli settlements or working for the Palestinian Authority. After the war, Israel suspended work permits and restricted transfers of Palestinian tax revenues to the PA, forcing salary reductions. West Bank unemployment tripled.
The severity of threats experienced by Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem also grew – from settler violence, home demolitions, land seizures, forced expulsions and Israeli security force raids. Palestinians report feeling increasingly threatened and insecure.
Our findings also demonstrate a Palestinian crisis of confidence in their own leadership. Palestinians in Gaza largely reject Hamas, and in the West Bank have diminished regard for the PA. Gazans increasingly blame both Hamas and Israel for the war, and three-quarters of West Bank Palestinians are dissatisfied with the PA’s response to the conflict. The PA, once the promise of a Palestinian future, is increasingly viewed as humiliated by Israel, or even an agent of the occupation.
The devastation of war and Israeli policies that have negatively impacted and created a loss of confidence in their leadership define the crisis confronting Palestinians today. They want independence, security, an improved economy and better jobs, and improved services, but see no clear path forward.
There are disturbing signs of despair. Asked about preferred strategies moving forward, a plurality of West Bank and Gazan respondents just want to revert to pre-October 7 but with better paying jobs, and improved services and quality of life. Despite a majority of Gazans and plurality of West Bank Palestinians favouring a two-state solution, almost two-thirds in all areas believe the situation is close to a one-state reality where Israel controls Palestinians throughout Israel, the West Bank and Gaza.
The bottom line from three years of polling is that the unique circumstances imposed by Israel on Palestinians have complicated the path forward. While the international community focuses on Palestinian reform, the real threat to peace and stability is the Israeli government’s rejection of all proposals calling for ending their assault on Gaza, withdrawing their forces, a PA role in Gaza, and including Palestinian independence or sovereignty on the agenda.
This intransigence must be addressed. The US, Western Europe and regional states should take concrete measures to force Israel to end its occupation, impose an international trusteeship with a peacekeeping force in the occupied territories, and make a long-term commitment to assisting Palestinians in establishing representative governance in an independent sovereign state.
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