Peace in the region will remain elusive as long as Iran’s current regime remains in power, as it cannot be regarded as a credible negotiating partner, a former British Cabinet minister has said.
The chair of the UK Abraham Accords Group, Dr Liam Fox, in an exclusive interview with the GDN, shared his insights about the US-Iran-Israel conflict since it began on February 28, its long-term implications for global economies, and Tehran’s nefarious activities regionally and internationally.
He said the truce between the US and Iran, which has been in place since April 8, was broken on Monday after the UAE engaged 12 Iranian ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles and four unmanned aerial vehicles, causing three injuries. The incident, according to him, showed that ‘Iran is a dangerous loose cannon to all of its neighbours’.
“I don’t believe that peace is possible while this current regime is in place,” added Dr Fox, who is on a visit to Bahrain.
“This is because I have often described Russia as a ‘thugocracy,’ which, in other words, is a system run by gangsters, and Iran is doubly cursed of being a thugocracy that is run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with a fanatic ‘theocracy’ on top of it.
“This is a dangerous combination and a double dose of bad luck.”
The former UK Defence Secretary explained that now, with the conflict upon the region, it is imperative to select whether parties are siding with US allies in the region or backing Iran.
“We know that there’s no legitimacy to the Iranian regime as there have been substantial internal protests against them.”
He said during the 1979 Revolution, masses – whether religious, secular, liberal, conservative, or Marxist – rallied together under the shared goal to topple the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Pahlavi, but during the post-revolutionary period ‘it was hijacked by Khamanei and his religious zealots who were better organised,” he added.
“And I think that there is still a tendency for the opposition to be fragmented, even against the current regime…that’s a problem.”
Dr Fox, during the interview, said Americans initially wanted to change the behaviour of the Iranian regime towards its regional neighbours, and curb its nuclear programme ambitions. However, that strategic objective, as the conflict extended, moved towards a regime change.
“The only real way out is for the regime to change,” he added as his personal view.
“In Iran, I don’t believe you’ll get the change in behaviour.
“The real victims of all these are the people of Iran, who are saddled with a system of government that they do not want, as that country continues to face an intense, brutal, and murderous oppression of its civilian population.
“It’s not clear how much authority, if any, the Supreme leader has or what the military command structure looks like, whether it is indeed a unified structure, or whether you’ve got regional groupings of IRGC who are acting unilaterally.”
He added that there was no doubt about the clear and present danger posed by the Iranian regime, but said that, on the other hand, a stable and outward‑looking Iran could help transform the region into a powerful bloc. “If Iran is in harmony with its neighbours and attracts foreign direct investments, then it unleashes its full potential that will help its young population, and this region could be one of the richest and most powerful within a generation,” said Dr Fox.
He further highlighted the role of Iranian proxies, namely Hizbollah, Hamas and the Houthis that have been creating chaos and instability in the Gulf states and wider region, with Bahrain also facing the challenge of confronting them.
“Iran has, in one form or another, been at war with many of us for a number of years,” he said.
“It defies the international community over its nuclear plans, uranium enrichment, and has undermined its neighbours, politically, including Bahrain, with attempts to destabilise its population, particularly its young population.”
Meanwhile, on the issue of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – the vital sea channel – two months into the conflict, choking 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas supplies, he said US President Donald Trump is actively working to reopen the strategic chokepoint by pushing the international community to be part of a global coalition.
However, Iran has said it would respond to US positions if Washington renewed attacks and restated its claim to the Strait of Hormuz, complicating US plans for a coalition to reopen the waterway.
France, Britain, and other countries have held talks on contributing to such a coalition but said they were willing to help open the Strait only when the conflict ends.
“We need to bring in other assets to be part of this global coalition rather than the US on its own,” urged Dr Fox. “Keeping an internationally recognised vital waterway open is the responsibility of all those who use it.”
Dr Fox praised the role of the UK in supporting Bahrain and its Gulf allies to protect against Iranian drones and missiles. “We have absolute world-leading capabilities in the UK, in mine sweeping and (sea) mine hunting that are going to be a very crucial element of any coalition,” he said.
The GDN reported last month that British Defence Secretary John Healey announced they were planning to buy the cutting-edge interceptor missiles that are expected to be delivered this month to its Armed Forces and Gulf partners, to counter any future use of Iranian Shahed attack drones, as part of an agreement with Cambridge Aerospace. The Skyhammer air defence system is designed to counter Shahed drones and has a range of 30km with a maximum speed of 700km/h.
Since the start of the US-Iran-Israeli war, Tehran has launched waves of cheap, mass-produced drones, including Shaheds. In the first week of the Middle East conflict, Iran launched more than 1,000 drones, and it is estimated to have the capacity to produce around 10,000 per month.
The Bahrain Defence Force has intercepted 523 Iranian drones and 194 missiles since the start of the conflict on February 28.
Tehran has targeted critical infrastructure, striking a desalination plant in Bahrain on March 8 and, causing material damage. It has further targeted Bahrain’s energy facilities including operational units at Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company, a storage facility belonging to Bapco Energies, Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), Foulath Holding, energy facilities and fuel storage tanks in Muharraq Governorate, and the Bapco Energies refinery in Sitra. In addition, a five-star hotel, at least five residential towers and the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet were also hit by rogue drones and missiles.
Two people have been killed in the kingdom – Bangladeshi ship worker Abul Mohsin Tareq in a port on March 2 and a young Bahraini Sara Dashti who was enjoying an evening out in the Seef District on March 10.
The BDF announced the death of Moroccan civilian contractor on March 24 who was serving with the armed forces of the UAE during a routine mission in Bahrain, following an Iranian missile attack.
Bahrain’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations in New York sent its eleventh official letter last month to the UN Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council, calling upon Iran to provide ‘full, effective and immediate compensation to all victims for the damage and injuries caused by its attacks in or against the Kingdom of Bahrain’.
Dr Fox, however, said it’s always difficult to determine reparations in war and conflict, and in this case ascertaining whether the compensation extends to the activities of Hizbollah, Hamas or the Houthis.
Bahrain has long accused Iran of funding, training and equipping extremists behind a campaign of violence against security personnel here, finally cutting diplomatic ties with Tehran in 2016. However, before the conflict, both sides worked to establish the legal frameworks necessary for restoring diplomatic relations, including high level visits from officials from the two countries.
sandy@gdnmedia.bh
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