India’s wheat output is likely to fall by 5 per cent to 10pc from 2025 levels, trade officials said, missing government forecast of a rise after rain and hail spells just before harvest cut yields.
Although lower output could curb purchases by government agencies, which have missed wheat buying targets for the past four years, this is unlikely to cause shortages as New Delhi holds stocks at roughly three times the required level.
“The wheat crop was in good shape, but untimely rain just before harvest is likely to cut output from last year’s level,” Nitin Gupta, deputy country head at Olam Agri India, an agricultural commodity trader, told Reuters.
More than 80pc of India’s wheat comes from Madhya Pradesh and the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, all of which received above average rainfall during the March to mid-April harvest period.
The government has forecast a record wheat output of 120.21 million metric tons this year.
Supplies are still expected to meet local demand and keep a lid on prices after a robust 2025 harvest boosted inventories.
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