Opec+ is likely to keep its oil output policy unchanged for October at a meeting on Sunday, three sources close to the matter told Reuters, as the producer group completes the unwinding of one layer of production cuts this month and turns its focus to 2027 quota negotiations.
The meeting comes as the Iran war continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing Opec+’s influence over prices and market share. Unlike in the past, the group’s supply decisions now have a more limited impact on the market.
Sunday’s meeting will involve seven core Opec+ members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. The countries have been raising monthly production quotas for most of this year.
In practice, however, actual output has lagged the planned quota increases as the wars in Iran and Ukraine disrupted exports from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan.
Opec+ comprises the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. Opec, its dominant producer Saudi Arabia, and Russia did not immediately respond to requests for comment. This month’s increase, agreed in early August, completed a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023, when the group still included the UAE, which left Opec in May.
Opec+ still has another layer of production cuts in place, covering most members of the 21-country group until the end of 2026. It is also reviewing members’ oil production capacity to determine 2027 output baselines, which form the basis for quotas.
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