THE number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but remained at slightly higher levels, suggesting some moderation in the pace of job growth in June.
Economists largely shrugged off the report from the Labour Department yesterday, with some pointing out that the recent elevation in claims was likely due to seasonal distortions related to the end of the school year. They viewed the labour market as remaining stable enough for the Federal Reserve to focus on stamping out inflation, stoked by the Iran war. The US central bank on Wednesday kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50 per cent-3.75pc range, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers expected to raise borrowing costs this year amid growing concerns about inflation.
“We don’t expect claims to trend consistently higher from here,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics. “And despite the bounce off the recent lows, the level of initial claims is still consistent with a broad range of labour market indicators that show the job market has improved but isn’t overheating. That will allow the Fed to keep policy on hold while it waits for inflation to come down.”
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 226,000 for the week ended June 13, the Labour Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. Claims had increased for three straight weeks, pushing to the upper end of their 190,000-230,000 range for this year.
Last week, there were notable increases in unadjusted claims in Oregon and Minnesota, among the few states that allow non-teaching staff to file for unemployment benefits during the months-long school holidays. Seasonal factors, the model used by the government to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data, do not always capture these moves.
Claims in Pennsylvania rose 3,734 last week after surging 5,381 in the prior week, an increase that was attributed to layoffs in transportation and warehousing, administrative and support and waste management and remediation services industries as well as in accommodation and food services, healthcare and social assistance.
The labour market has regained momentum, posting three straight months of strong job gains, after wobbling in 2025. Lower layoffs have kept the unemployment rate at 4.3pc for three consecutive months.
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