Scientists are warning that the ongoing ‘Super El Niño’ event could persist into 2027, severely affecting agriculture, water security and economic growth in the GCC.
Arabian Gulf University professor of applied physics Dr Waheeb Essa Alnaser noted that the phenomenon would lead to unprecedented and severe heatwaves across the region, as well as a drop in water table levels due to extensive use and demand.
“Global climate models indicate the potential formation of an exceptional Super El Niño phenomenon in 2027, causing extreme weather resulting from a physical disturbance in atmospheric pressure distribution,” Dr Alnaser said.
El Niño is a climate pattern that causes the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean to become unusually warm.
It naturally occurs every two to seven years and can lead to more rainfall in certain areas and droughts in others. It tends to last between nine and 12 months.
Scientists note that human-driven climate change and El Niño are separate processes.
While man-made climate change occurs as a result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the global weather system over decades, El Niño redistributes heat that is already stored in the ocean.
However, they can occur at the same time, and this time, a strong El Niño is taking place on a substantially warmer planet.
Forecasters around the world are predicting that the current El Niño, which began in June, is expected to be the strongest since the 19th century.
“This is a Super El Niño, and global average temperatures are expected to rise by more than 1.7C, breaching the Paris Agreement target of 1.5C,” Dr Alnaser added.
“The equatorial Pacific Ocean surface temperature will increase by 2C to 3C.”
The UK’s national weather forecaster recently said that 2027 was very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.
According to Dr Alnaser, the El Niño this year will set new record highs when it comes to temperatures and alter the global weather map.
It will also create Omega heat domes, where a strong high-pressure system sitting between two low-pressure systems creates high air pressure pushing downwards.
The GDN previously reported that the phenomenon took place in Bahrain last month as subtropical atmospheric pressure built up over the Arabian Peninsula.
In a heat dome, a large, stagnant area of high-pressure atmospheric air forces warm air downward.
As the air sinks, it compresses and warms significantly in what is known as the ‘Lid Effect’.
The high pressure effectively blocks any incoming weather fronts, clouds, or cooling storms.
With clear, cloudless skies, the sun beats down directly on the ground, rapidly drying out moisture and causing the surface to absorb and radiate even more heat into the air.
Heat domes are incredibly dangerous for both the environment and human health.
According to Dr Alnaser, temperatures in the dome could exceed 50C creating severe drought conditions.
At the edges of the heat dome, severe storms are likely to take place alongside a belt of intense low-pressure systems along the perimeter.
Torrential rainfall and unprecedented flash flooding are expected in these areas.
In the Arabian Gulf, the ongoing Super El Niño could bring a warmer winter, an early start to the rainy season and heavier rainfall stretching into spring next year, according to the UAE National Meteorology Centre.
naman@gdnmedia.bh
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